iPhone 4S Rumors Abound As New iPhone Media Event Looms
Posted by Michael Nace on Monday Oct 3, 2011 Under iPhone 5 News, iPhone 5 OpinionIn one last hurrah before the October 4th announcement, the iPhone 5 rumor mill makes up its mind: it will be an iPhone 4S tomorrow.
If there is ever a day when the iPhone 5 rumor mill renders itself completely worthless, it’s today. With just 24+ hours until Apple unveils its long-waited new iPhone iteration, no leaked photo, screen shot, or iPhone 5 case can mollify the avid iPhone junkie searching for answers to their insatiable questions: after this long a wait, everyone can wait just one day longer.
In spite of this reality, however, the media are still hard at it, compressing a year’s worth of rumors and doubling down on their last-minute predictions. Taking a quick look around the tech media sphere — as well as some of the mainstream media — it would appear that much of the media expects not an iPhone 5, but rather a refreshed iPhone 4S.
9to5Mac seems to have made its mind up on the issue, observing that the rumors weigh more heavily in favor of the iPhone 4S than the iPhone 5. They note that, while the only “solid” evidence of the overhauled, teardrop design are a flurry of cheap iPhone 5 cases, the rest of the circumstantial evidence points to the iPhone 4S. They comment that, “Because of lack of evidence for a redesign, we believe that Apple will introduce only an iPhone 4S on Tuesday,” and then goes on to list seven compelling pieces of evidence to support the claim. Granted, none of them are what you would call “smoking guns,” and some of them don’t even make any sense, such as “N94 device with iPhone 4 design tested on T-Mobile” — didn’t T-Mobile already tell us that they aren’t releasing an iPhone this year?
In any case, it’s interesting to see that 9to5Mac has settled on this prediction just a day ahead of the announcement.
But some of the big media outlets have also referenced the iPhone 4S speculation as well. FoxNews had this to say today: “Rumor has it that the phone will be called the iPhone 4S, not iPhone 5. We have seen Apple do this before when its flagship phone has not been fully refreshed but rather updated incrementally. The 3G and 3GS are good examples.” That’s it. That’s all they had to say about the issue — they’ve all but settled on the iPhone 4S speculation as well.
CNN.com is a bit more scatter-brained with their own report, citing virtually everything that has been written about the next iPhone. However, they do lead off their long, confusing list of possibilities by saying, “The tech specs of the new phone are still hotly debated, as reporters scour Apple patents, SKU codes and, of course, Bay Area bars for any remaining iPhone-rumor morsels sure to grab the public’s attention,” then going on to acknowledge, “The phone will be called the iPhone 5 or iPhone 4S.” CNN kind of gives up their hack status when it comes to the iPhone, since we all know that Apple could very well choose a name not on this short-list.
MacRumors is more diffuse in making a prediction, instead opting to simply list the possibilities of what we might get tomorrow. But one interesting quote from this article concerns the naming of the next device: “Several retailers and carriers are beginning to list “iPhone 5″ on their websites, which some readers take as evidence for a redesigned iPhone. Those companies’ use of the term “iPhone 5″ is not referring to any particular design (tapered or otherwise) but are simply placeholders. They are simply using the term “iPhone 5″ as a naturally descriptive term to mean “the iPhone that comes after the iPhone 4.”
MacRumors seems to be getting at the point that the significance of the name of the next iPhone is incredibly convoluded — Apple has every right to call it “iPhone 5,” whether it turns out to be an overhaul or not. After all, it will be the fifth-generation iPhone. And if they choose to call it “4S” or “4GS,” they will be putting themselves in the position of having to skip over the “iPhone 5″ and go right to “iPhone 6″ in 2012, like they did with the iPhone and then the subsequent iPhone 3G.
One final speculation — one that interests me the most, comes from BGR of all sites, who delves into the last-minute sense that the next iPhone could be truly 4G-ready. Citing some screen shots (again — they could be easily fabricated), BGR claims that the next iPhone will either be 4G LTE, or at the very least, boast 4G-like speeds: “One listing mentioned the oft-rumored iPhone 4S and the second listed a $639.99 iPhone 5 with an 8-megapixel camera, a 4-inch display and “4G Data Speeds.” BGR also represents the last bastion of the dual iPhone releases — though I’ve seen very little of that being claimed today.
My Prediction
Like you, I’ve taken in all of the so-called evidence over the past summer, and I’ve found most of it to be inconclusive at best. I would agree with 9to5Mac’s assertion that the lion’s share of actionable intelligence suggests this refreshed “iPhone 4S” over an overhauled iPhone 5. That being said, this perception may also simply be the result of Apple doing its best to keep the iPhone 5 under wraps. Maybe that’s exactly what they want us to believe?
Of all the screen shots, iPhone cases, and other sightings, I think the best evidence we’ve seen so far comes directly from Apple: their media event graphic. Most companies don’t think about the symbolism of choosing press conference dates and PR graphics — but Apple does. We are inclined to believe that all of the big answers to the next iPhone are embedded in the Let’s Talk iPhone graphic. It’s a riddle — and a brilliantly planned one at that, in that it doesn’t solidify anything, but makes a lot of suggestions.
I think it is significant that Apple chose October 4th and not the 5th for their announcement. Granted, Apple may have chosen the 4th just as a means of throwing off the prognosticators, but in the end, I think that their PR department likes it when things align nicely. The 4th suggests that the iPhone will have a 4 in its name. Also, there are four icons.
(One cooky idea I had is that the white space in between the icons forms a kind of plus sign, and the 4 plus the little 1 for the missed call equals five. But that seems a little too coded — even for Apple.)
Also, the “let’s talk iPhone” slogan fits in nicely with the recent rumor that iOS 5′s Assistant will be a flagship feature. It tells me that software will be the focus of this new iPhone, and that Apple feels it is enough to excite people to buy it.
Another reason I think that the iPhone will have “4″ in its name is that we’ve heard from our own source — with certainty on his part — that the next iPhone will retain the iPhone 4′s form factor. It is possible that he and his sources have just seen an iPhone 4 being manufactured for Asia, and, as I said above, Apple has just done a great job in keeping the new iPhone under wraps. But because Apple has re-used a form factor before (3G to 3Gs), there is a precedent for them doing it. Also, the iPhone 4 has been wildly successful over the past year and a half.
This isn’t to say that they might not bump up the size of the screen — but I think that there is a good chance that it will have to stay within the boundaries of the current iPhone’s specs.
Finally, I think there is a better chance than many acknowledge that the next iPhone could be 4G. There is a debate back and forth about whether the U.S. is ready for a 4G iPhone, with only the urban areas sporting 4G coverage. Even I found it doubtful at the onset of the iPhone 5 hype cycle. But in the end, I think 4G has gotten into the mainstream enough to give it a 50/50 chance.
On this final day, I am leaning towards an iPhone 4S or 4GS, with an iPhone 4-esque form factor, replacing the glass back with metal and maybe just tweaking the screen size up a bit. I remain unconvinced that there will be two new iPhones.
Let’s hope I’m wrong, and we get the big, bold iPhone 5 we’ve all bee dreaming of!
By Michael Nace
Michael Nace is the Publisher of the iPhone 5 News Blog and iPhone 6 News Blog. He has published articles about the iPhone since 2010.
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October 3rd, 2011 at 12:55 pm
hmm. so you are predicting a combination of the 2!! iphone 4s but with the “iphone 5″ screen bump, metal back and possible LTE. Way to go out on a limb!!
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:00 pm
If the specs are right, the name doesn’t exactly matter, though I’m assuming it’ll be an iPhone 5.
I’m not sure I understand why an iPhone 4S would indicate that the next model would be an iPhone 6 though. If they didn’t feel compelled to name the 5th version “5″, I’m not sure why they’d not name the 6th version “5″. It’s not like after 3G and 3Gs they went to 5, since 3Gs was in lieu of 4…
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:01 pm
Agree with you here, Michael. The redesigned iPhone is looking less and less likely, so frankly if we were betting money I’d bet on an iPhone 4S coming out. I’d be glad to be wrong, but I don’t think we’ll be wrong.
Also, I am glad someone else made the point that if Apple skipping over to “iPhone 6″ if they decide to go for “4S” tomorrow
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:07 pm
What about Apple going 4,5,6? iPhone 4s, iOS5, A6 processor?
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:08 pm
So, supposedly Verizon is only going to let those eligible for a 2 year upgrade pre-order the phone because that’s how they did it with the iPhone 4, so people like me who have their annual upgrade are going to have to wait,
http://community.vzw.com/t5/Upgrade-and-Activation/How-hard-will-it-be-to-get-an-iPhone-5/td-p/682105
Anyone else ever hear of this? I’ve been waiting since April so they better let me preorder this thing or they’re going to be getting calls from me nonstop until they do.
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:10 pm
One thing I’m certain of (if I don’t bail for Sprint) is that I’ll be taking advantage of my 20 mos upgrade @ AT&T next time. Rumors be damned.
June 14 2013, Iphone XXX here I come!
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:18 pm
iPhone 4S would sadden me. Only 24 hours left until the announcement here in SoCal
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:23 pm
Hi Michael,
I’ve been reading the blog for a couple months and just wanted to say thank you for assembling all this information in one place. I’ve been holding out on getting an iPhone since I heard the “new” one would be out this year and hope I’m not disappointed!
I do have a question — since I have to be at work when the announcement is made, will Apple be streaming it anywhere? Can’t wait to see what actually comes out of the big announcement. We’ll find out in less than 24 hours!
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:29 pm
Hi Jen B, and thank you for all of your continued months of reading.
Apple will not be carrying the event live, however, we will be live-blogging the event here. And then we’ll write a wrap-up as well. We’ll definitely be covering the new iPhone all week with gusto. 
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:32 pm
@Jen B
I’ve always watched the Apple announcements over at http://www.engadget.com. They don’t stream it by video, but provide really good pictures and detailed comments every few seconds.
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:44 pm
I really don’t want an Ice Cream Sandwich. Hopefully lunch tomorrow will be good.
October 3rd, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Hi Michael,
I too have been following the blog for months and although this is my first comment I have really enjoyed the community and feel part of it, so Thank you!
I am looking forward to getting an iPhone and have been holding out since Feb when a techie friend of mine told me to wait for the new iPhone (i have a bb from 1908 (jk) and have been eligible for an upgrade since last Oct but was originally waiting for the iphone to come to Verizon). I was going to ask the same question as Jen B–so how will the live blogging work? Do we just come here and then we’ll see your comments as you post them? (sorry I’m new to all this) Thanks again!
October 3rd, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Can anyone recommend a site that will be doing live video of the announcement tomorrow?
October 3rd, 2011 at 2:40 pm
don’t worry, the rumor mill will all start all over again, at 11:01 tomorrow if we don’t get a true “iPhone 5″, the question though will be…”Will all of those who skipped buying the iPhone 4 who had a from a 3G settle for a 4s or wait several months to a year until Apple names an iPhone “5″?”
October 3rd, 2011 at 2:49 pm
Evidence making it look more and more likely that the next iPhone will not be a complete redesign? Maybe I’m just being too hopeful here, but what evidence is there really that points the the 4S being way more likely than the complete redesign? There hasn’t really been anything that suggests one way or the other. Truly, from where I’m sitting, there is not a shread of good evidence that the next iPhone will be a supped up iPhone 4. There is also not a shread of good evidence that it will be the completely redisgned, revamped iPhone 5 that we all want either. Just saying.
October 3rd, 2011 at 2:53 pm
Thank you Michael for the blog, its been fun! On to the iPhone6 rumours. Whatever this one looks like or is named I’m getting it and can’t wait. A better processor and a better camera are all thats really needed, iOS and the awesome appstore will do the rest.
October 3rd, 2011 at 2:57 pm
Hey Michael,
I also wanted to thank you for your blogging, it’s been a real pleasure, reading them, and the comments. I’ve wanted to buy an Iphone since forever, after I found a summer job I finnaly had the money to do so, but I wanted to wait for the next gen one (2-3 more months wouldn’t hurt). So i’ve been reading this blog on a daily basis since august (along with 9to5mac), and this is my first comment. I too have the similar question like the ones above: what about the livestream? I read on 9to5mac, that they won’t stream the event live (I must say, I’m a bit dissappointed that you didn’t post this yet). I’m sorta bummed out about this, because I would really like to see, and hear things for a change instead of always reading the rumours on blogs, no offence. How long after the event ends do you think I will be able the download/stream it (not live obviously, on youtube, for example)? I really want to see the event before I read about the announcements on different blogs.
Thanks in advance, and again, ur doing a great job with this blog, keep it up for the iphone 6 or 5! :p
Ps.: What does the little checkbox next to the ‘Submit Comment’-button do?
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:00 pm
Yes,thanks 4 all the interesting reading over the last many monthes.Enjoyed it and looking 4ward 2 the IPHONE 6 blog..
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:10 pm
Just found a site, Vertex TV (www.watchvertex.com) that claims they will be broadcasting the event live as it happens…don’t know anything about them. Anyone else ever hear of them? Anyway, will certainly still be following Michael & Charles to have their interpretation but just FYI..
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:49 pm
i don’t see “tim cook can’t risk showing a 4s” argument because apple was designing the the new phone way before he was even ceo of apple
October 3rd, 2011 at 3:53 pm
correction: i don’t see the “tim cook can’t risk showing a 4s” argument as being valid because apple was designing the the new phone way before he was even ceo of apple
October 3rd, 2011 at 4:48 pm
It will be 4am here when they do the announcement. I’ll log on when I wake up and check out the outcome here.
October 3rd, 2011 at 5:01 pm
So now WSJ is reporting that Sprint is going to get dump $20 billion to Apple for iPhones for the next 4 years. BGR is reporting that Sprint is exclusively getting the iPhone 5 and the others the 4S. I REALLY REALLY hope BGR’s prediction is BS…
October 3rd, 2011 at 5:02 pm
Spastic, ask yourself just how plausible that claim really is.
October 3rd, 2011 at 5:05 pm
I’ll go to Sprint if they can give me 2 iPhone 5′s at T-mobiles 2 Smartphones for 99$ a month deal.
October 3rd, 2011 at 5:07 pm
Yeah well usually Wall Street Journal doesn’t post BS articles like others, the BGR one I really doubt though.
October 3rd, 2011 at 5:14 pm
I bet Sprint getting the 5 would piss off alot of Verizon & AT&T customers.
Doesn’t bother me. You could call your current service provider to tell them your switching to Sprint, and they will bend over backwards to keep you.
October 3rd, 2011 at 5:53 pm
This is SO exciting! I can’t wait for tommorrow!
:-D:-D
October 3rd, 2011 at 7:11 pm
@Jinx Lunger apple doesn’t allow live streaming of the keynote but you can watch it in form of pictures and text live on sites like engadget.com:) really hope it has a new design and a bigger screen, if it doesn’t I’m keeping my iPhone 4 but i would be really disappointed:-/
October 3rd, 2011 at 7:39 pm
Gotcha, thanks norwaynumber1! Am really hoping for a redesign as well. Will see soon!
October 3rd, 2011 at 8:05 pm
This is kind of like Christmas Eve for grown ups – or at least techie type people!! As I read everyone’s comments these last several days/months its like our “wish list for iPhone.” Me included. I am one of the ones who was eligible for the iPhone4, but decided I could wait a little while for the white one. Little did I realize it would be a year later and by then the 5 (or 4s or whatever) was in the pipe,so I have waited for this – finally. My faithful little 3G is filled to its eyeballs with music and apps and really needs an honorable retirement. And luckily I hung onto my original iPhone – my son is using it to tide him over until tomorrow – or whenever we can get it. Even it is still chugging along, albeit slowly.
Michael – thank you for this blog. It has made these last several months bearable. Someone last week referred to this as their new hobby and I must agree. Right now I’m sitting in Neuro ICU with my husband and keeping up with everyone has been a welcome diversion. I have enjoyed reading everyone’s comments and think Aimee and I could be girlfriends (like girl friends that is!) even though she’s up in Maine I think and I’m still sweltering down here in Texas.
This is only my second post, but I am familiar with this format, so I would vote that it be kept in its present form – just because I’m familiar with it – lol..
So sleep tight and sweet dreams everyone – visions of sugarplums and iphones dancing in our heads…I hope we are all blown away with awesomeness.
Can’t stop thinkin about tomorrow… that could be a song – and now I will stop using all these ellipses.
October 3rd, 2011 at 8:14 pm
Spastic, It’s all over the Silicon Investor Qualcomm board about the $20b & Sprint exclusitivity deal for the CDMA/GSM/WIMAX Iphone 5. Tomorrow will be an interesting day, and i’ll be preordering my Sprint Iphone 5 – hopefully
October 3rd, 2011 at 9:23 pm
The Wall Street Journal has an awesome track record with Apple predictions and insight. I can’t remember a time when they’ve been wrong; they must have good sources. It’s even been guessed that Apple may informally use WSJ as their unofficial-official outlet for news leaks (but who believes conspiracy theories, anyway?). Unfortunately, they haven’t said much this time, which leads me to believe there really isn’t any reliable information out there. Apple has done a great job of keeping everything under wraps this time (unless the truth is hidden in plain sight and we are just looking past it).
LOL @ 9to5Mac’s reasoning that the tons of circumstantial evidence points to iPhone 4S. More like fabricated evidence. The 4S rumors started spreading directly after reports claimed that developers had received A5 powered iPhone 4′s from Apple. From then on, the rumors increased exponentially with almost no proof to back them. If you read, write, say, or hear something enough, then you will start to believe it.
October 3rd, 2011 at 9:55 pm
the “4s” is like a cockroach. GET AWAY YOU FREAKIN BUG!!!!
But i am confident that apple will release an overhaul tomorrow, or else i’ll be in the corner of my room, crying my eyes out because i didnt get something good like an GS2.
October 3rd, 2011 at 10:07 pm
@SheriBob, I think that we could be great friends! I will be thinking of you and your husband in Neuro ICU. I have to agree, it is just like Christmas eve! My mother was laughing at me tonight because I was acting just like my son on Christmas Eve! It is very cute with a six year old, not so much with an adult. Even he rolled his eyes and shook his head at me. I am sure that I will drive him nuts tomorrow. I can’t say what the new phone will be, but I would not be surprised if it is a 4S or 4GS. I guess that we shall have to wait and see…
October 3rd, 2011 at 10:07 pm
Ok, well here’s a VERY interesting development as far as I’m concerned. 9to5 Mac put out an article saying that the iPhone 4S will be available in 16, 32, and 64GB, with prices at $100, $200, and $300 respectively. Is this mid-range iPhone thing really turning out to be true? I’ll post the link below, but this seems like a really big deal to me and a hint that the iPhone 5 and iPhone 4S is indeed a reality.
October 3rd, 2011 at 10:08 pm
http://9to5mac.com/2011/10/03/last-minute-whispers-iphone-4s-pricing-and-october-14th-launch-date/#more-96368
October 3rd, 2011 at 10:11 pm
” For time,in the world,does not stand still, change is the way of life, for those who look on to android ,and black berry, are certain to miss the future. I SAID ARE CERTAIN TO MISS THE FUTURE.” John F. Kennedy
October 4th, 2011 at 12:09 am
Hey Michael. We are about 13 hours away from the unveiling but I was wondering if you knew when Apple will post the video of the event online? Or does anyone else know? How soon after the actual event does the video go up, for all us unfortunate people who can’t be at Cupertino, to see?