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wowman (82)Fall iPhone 5 Launch Now Looking Most Likely
Posted by CharlesMoore on Monday Feb 20, 2012 Under iPhone 5 PredictionsMany commentators, including me, have been of a mind that the most likely date for the iPhone 5‘s release would be in June at the Apple World Wide Developer’s Conference. That supposition, at least in my case, has been based on deductive guesswork and past precedent rather than hard knowledge, the latter being the preserve of only an elite few insiders in the upper echelons of Apple’s executive hierarchy – if indeed a release date has yet been finalized.
However, June may be optimistic. A post by danbo at the Japan-based Macotakara blog Monday, says that according to a reliable Asian source, the next iPhone will be released in September or October, continuing a new iPhone release cycle begun with the iPhone 4S last fall that could be sustained “for years,” taking over a calendar time slot that had been reserved for Apple’s erstwhile annual iPod event.
However with the iPod gradually fading and being more and more eclipsed by the iPhone and iPad, it makes logical sense for Apple to use the time–window early in the school year and at the beginning of the Christmas season ramp–up to better advantage for a higher–profile and more lucrative flagship product like the iPhone.
That timing certainly paid off with the iPhone 4S launch last fall. The 4S, despite a bit of a chilly welcome from hardcore iPhone enthusiasts disgruntled by the anticipated iPhone 5′s no–show, has turned out to be the hottest–selling iPhone model ever, and the company’s most prodigious money–spinner.
So after digesting all that, I’m changing my speculative forecast. I’m now convinced provisionally that a fall iPhone 5 launch is a greater likelihood than a rollout at WWDC, which leaves the interesting question of what will be unveiled at WWDC. My guess is that it will be new laptops, which are overdue for an overhaul, and the timing seems to coincide well with Intel’s recently slowed–down phased release roadmap for its new Ivy Bridge Core i CPU family.
Meanwhile, next on the Applecart agenda is the iPad 3 launch, which pretty much everyone agrees will likely happen next month. On the other hand there are differing schools of thought on whether or not iPad 3 will feature quad-core A6 CPU silicon. I’ve been skeptical, and remain so.
For on thing, a few weeks before Christmas, Samsung announced that it was ramping up A5 chip production at its new Austin, Texas fabrication facility. THat was around the time the iPad 3′s specification would have been gelled, and production initiated for a March launch. It’s hard to imagine that Samsung would start up a new A5 production operation if the chip was about to be superseded.
However, a possible silver lining to the late iPHone release cloud is that leaves more time for Apple to get its A6 ducks in a row. That’s of course not to say that the next iPhone will have quad-core silicon. I’m more inclined to think Apple will prefer to introduce the A6 CPU in an iPad rather than an iPhone, but they could surprise me.
Meanwhile, The Register Hardware’s Caleb Cox reports that Apple’s next tablet upgrade will feature a dual-core A5X system-on-a-chip, if photos of a supposed iPad 3 logic board posted online in a forum post on Chinese site WeiPhone are of the real goods. The images show the new iPad’s CPU is an upgraded version of the A5. Cox notes that a date code of 1146 is visible, indicating that the A5X chip was manufactured in the 46th week of 2011, which would be the 14-20 November — around the time Samsung’s Texas A5 fab started production.
If that purported A5X CPU is the real McCoy, it could well be the chip that powers the iPhone 5, following the pattern of the A5 chip introduced in the iPad 2 last March eventually also powering the iPhone 4S.
February 21st, 2012 at 12:08 am
Well, dang I was really was betting on a June release… I don’t know if I really want to wait until October to get the next iPhone. I hope your wrong but at the same time it’s all logical since that it would be released around the same time frame by the way you put it. Thanks again for the blog, I guess now we wait for the iPad 3 release to see what may come in the next iPhone. I hope it’s good.
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February 21st, 2012 at 1:51 am
Charles, great writing, my 2 cents.
As an economist, I see all of these potential release dates and really laugh at the speculation. We see this guy said … and that guy said… The reality is, no one knows. Analysts seem to be the worst at these predictions. I personally believe it will be a fall launch for 1 reason. That is the 4s is the best selling iPhone ever, with the majority of these consumers on longer term contracts than 9 months. We then have to ask ourselves, ‘what is the opportunity cost of Apple releasing an iPhone so soon?’ Everyone has their own answer to that question, the people still waiting have a much more positive answer because they want it and personal feelings get in the way.
The market is blind to this. The truth is that the majority of people who bought a 4s will not jump from their contracts earlier and eat the fees on that, especially in a down economy (yes it is still bad, lets just wait until we see summer gas prices). Even if a QC A6 processor was on the board, with a larger screen, 4G, and somehow better battery life came out, we must ask ourselves, will the majority of consumers pay all of that money up front again so soon to replace a 4s that is still practically the best out there, if consumers have common sense, and I believe they do, the answer is most likely not.
Apple knows this, plus, the iPad 3 will most likely be a big success. They have the profit rolling in, no need to rush another device. Lastly iPad users are most likely iPhone users as well. In a slow economy, with rising commodity prices, someone shelling out at least 500 for a new iPad 3 will most likely not be willing to pay another 400 3 months later for another iDevice.
Merely some thoughts from an economist who enjoys their 4s.
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February 21st, 2012 at 4:31 am
Darn, I was planning (sell my iP4S on the cheap) on the IP5 being released this summer. I would really appreciate the larger screen size, such as I do w/ my SGS2.
I’m still holding out hope.;)
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February 21st, 2012 at 7:09 am
I’m hoping the iPhone still comes out at WWDC and Apple get back on the old release cycle. I understand the points about the consumers, however you can’t base this all on “the 4S is the best selling iPhone” as statistically each new iteration of the iPhone becomes the best selling iPhone, so regardless on when it’s released the iPhone 5 will be the best selling iPhone.
Another thing i disagree on is that if it’s not the iPhone at WWDC it’ll be laptops, they were updated quite recently. However, iMacs are well due for an update, so I think if there’s no iPhone at WWDC, Apple will launch the new iMac.
Also, you yanks don’t know a thing about high gas prices, you should try driving in the UK
Currently around $8 per US gallon over here, and my Chevy Nova likes drinking gallons.
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February 21st, 2012 at 7:11 am
This may be correct as China has only just got the IP4s and I said in an earlier post that due to the massive sales, Apple wouldn’t likely release a new model so soon.
The Macbooks are certainly due a refresh and with the news that the new OSX mountain Lion is slated for the summer this now looks certain for WWDC.
The only thing is that Michael’s source in the case industry has reported that there will be a new model out in June and he/she was right last time!
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February 21st, 2012 at 10:25 am
Dear Michael…I hate to say this but this new site is really hard to use. I don’t come here anymore because of it. Frankly, I couldn’t even tell where I was to post this comment. Please change it back so we can read and keep breast more easily.
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February 21st, 2012 at 10:32 am
The choice of a September/October release would also put Apple on a six month gap between iPhone and iPad. I think Apple would quite like this, I think it will keep Apple in the spotlight with fairly regular releases. I think this applies less to the iMac and laptops which are much less advertised. September/October makes a lot of sense
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February 21st, 2012 at 12:41 pm
@Laura- I concur. Bring back the old site, please.
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February 21st, 2012 at 2:28 pm
I love and hate the new mobile site. It lays out really nice on my iPad and looks very professional. However, I cannot click title links to read an article, I must click the little monitor icon (found by frustrated poking) and then it opens in another tab, which is not great. I saw a posting that I can choose a desktop view but I do not see that anywhere. Maybe some tweaks?
Regardless of view, thank you Michael and Charles for the content!
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February 21st, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Hi Darren;
Not sure what you’re getting at about the MacBooks being updated recently. It was February, 2011 for the MacBook Pros (Core i silicon), and July 20, 2011 for the last MacBook Air refresh (also Core i chips). THe MacBook Pro hasn’t had a major overhaul since October, 2008, and the current MacBook Airs came out in October 2010.
Actually, I live in rural Canada, and regular gas is selling here this week for $6.26 an Imperial gallon, which is substantially kess that yolu’re paying, but getting pricy when you’re feeding a V6 powered 4×4 pickup, a big V8 Mercury Grand Marquis, and the nearest town is 50 miles away.
Charles
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February 21st, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Michael,
I have to agree with Laura, I liked the old site better. There is way too much white on this new site – really hard to look at. I also think the articles would get more discussion if the “Leave a comment” box was moved up from the very bottom of the page to directly underneath the article content.
I do however like the frequency of new articles being posted recently and the quality of content is great as always. I can also appreciate what you said in another comment about changing the layout to get better google rankings. Google rankings and ads are what keeps this blog going I’m sure.
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February 21st, 2012 at 8:34 pm
I like the new mobile interface but when I click on the article title it does not bring me to the full article. Still great idea, please fix.
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February 21st, 2012 at 8:44 pm
Maybe with the colors u can have as the same ones u have in the desktop site, white with black letters, moblie site is a must, so keep it.
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February 21st, 2012 at 8:48 pm
I actually don’t mind the new site, but please put the comments back in the right order (oldest first). It’s annoying scrolling down while reading a comment, then having to scroll up to see the next one.
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February 21st, 2012 at 9:22 pm
Ok, folks: thanks for the comments about the blog. I’m going to run a poll for the rest of the week and see what the masses think. I understand that the navigation and look is different, but I should also add that the new theme has seemed to improved web traffic by over 50%, thus helping revenues. The blog has been floundering in recent months, so I have to balance all of this. I’d like to make everyone happy, and will do my best.
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February 22nd, 2012 at 1:26 am
Michael,
While you’re at it, can you make the iPhone 5 come out yesterday? I really need it now…
Jeff
PS. It’d be really great is it was iPad sized… you know me…
Anyway, love the new site!
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February 22nd, 2012 at 4:19 am
It’s too bad, that there is not way to give readers an option (old or new) when viewing the site. Btw, thanks for all your efforts, much appreciated.
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February 22nd, 2012 at 8:51 am
There was an update in late October last year for the MacBook Pros too. My bad, I guess it just didn’t seem that long ago that they announced the new Mackbook Pro with thunderbolt etc, and the fact that it still looks fantastic. Whereas the iMac hasn’t really changed since 2009, and if it has Apple hasn’t made a song and dance about it like they did the thunderbolt Macbooks.
If you’re talking imperial gallons, it works out to around $9.54 per gallon over here. I’m finding it pricey enough with my 350 cube V8, so forget a big block
I don’t even get the luxury of cruising either, at least 80% of my driving is in town so I’m only hitting around 13.4mpg (mile per imperial gallon – or 11.2 MPG US gallons). Cruising long distances at a decent average speed I can get about 20mpg.
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February 22nd, 2012 at 8:58 am
My main criticisms are that the font looks small and messes up quite a bit (Safari on Windows), that the home page isn’t so clear (but I’m getting used to that), that when you type in a comment it doesn’t remember carriage returns, and viewing the site on the iPhone isn’t so good.
However, there are some good things, mainly the reply to comment feature.
At the end of the day, I’ll keep checking back regardless and will always appreciate the work that goes in to running a site like this.
Getting the 50% increase in traffic is great, I hope it’s from genuine hits and not more bots coming to try and steal your articles.
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February 22nd, 2012 at 1:36 pm
I understand the reasons for the change in this site and think that covering more than just the iPhone is a good idea. I expect the domain name will change eventually to the Apple News Blog or something similar (eh Michael?).
It takes time to adjust to a new layout and I am getting used to it but one of the reasons I visited the old site was that it was very easy to navigate and uncluttered. Now there are so many things going on I sometimes don’t know where to look. For example I didn’t know there were links to reply to specific posts (until I read one of the posts above) and it took me ages to find the poll.
Advertising and Google rankings are important for sites like this and revenue from them will bring even better things in future. Be careful of WordPress though as it is prone to hackers and you must keep it fully updated at all times along with keeping the server it runs on backed up.
My opinion is that the font size is too small and with the background being white it is difficult to read (I’m getting to be an old timer), especially on my iPhone. The black background and white text was also kind of a trademark and changing it to black on white loses some of the uniqueness of the original.
I enjoy the fact that there are a lot more news posts from Michael, Charles and the crew and the added diversity gives the opportunity to compare what is going on with the iPad3 and how this can affect the outcome of the IP5. There also seem to be a lot more posts from new people which is always welcome.
All in all a good step forward and being a ‘work in progress’ can only get better. Well done Michael.
For those who drive V8 4×4 gas guzzling monsters – stop complaining about the price of fuel, just get a more economical vehicle!
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February 22nd, 2012 at 2:29 pm
“…the old site was that it was very easy to navigate and uncluttered. Now there are so many things going on I sometimes don’t know where to look. For example I didn’t know there were links to reply to specific posts (until I read one of the posts above) and it took me ages to find the poll.”
This is spot on why I prefer the old site,thanks.
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February 22nd, 2012 at 5:56 pm
to darren@darrenlines.co.uk
Hi Darren,
Hi Darren,
Yes, I recall that there was a minor tweak to the MacBook Pros last October, but the one in Feb. 2011 was the substantial one with the Core I silicon. I agree that they still look great. I’ve been staring at a unibody MacBook for three years, and it still hasn’t gotten old in my eyes. One of the best-looking Apple laptops ever.
A Chevy 350 in the U.K.! Mixed blessing, I’m sure. Actually, you have a bigger mill than the 4.6 litre OHC in my big Mercury. The Merc isn’t really horrible on fuel mileage. The EPA highway rating is 34 MPG (Imperial), and with a reasonably light foot I can come close to that in real-world use. Definitely better than what I get with the 4.0 V6 in my Ford Ranger 4×4., although it’s a small pickup. Great little truck, though.
Charles
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February 22nd, 2012 at 6:04 pm
Hi Vernicularis,
Re: 4x4s.
Going without is not an ideal option where I live, on a dirt road,12 miles from local shopping, post office, bank, etc., and 50 miles from the nearest town, and with a long driveway on a steep hill. You can’t push a snow plow with a 4×2, or for that matter even get up our hill on many days in winter.
The Ford Ranger is small as trucks go, but it’s not a gas-sipper with the V6.
Charles
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February 26th, 2012 at 11:15 pm
The WWDC has to be the iPhone launch for a variety of reasons
First and most important is that the iPhone is probably the biggest money spinner for Apple who cannot afford a low key affair in Cupertino at the end of the year they need the glitz & glamour of the WWDC.
There is also the fact that the iPhone is technology wise playing catchup to Samsung and possibly even more and Android is grabbing a bigger market share all the time.
Everybody else will have their new toys out well before the iPhone 5 if Apple waits until the end of the year again and in the meantime people will be due for upgrades and unless they are iPhone die hards if they like the competition and they are having to wait for Apple alot of people just don’t want to wait.
I know a guy who is the biggest Apple die hard you could ever hope to meet and he likes to buy all the new toys every year and he has had an iPhone since it first came out then as the 4S was taking so long to be released he decided to just buy a Galaxy rather than wait for the next iPhone and he has fallen in love with it.
Tim Cook still has to make a name for himself make the shareholders feel Apple is safe in his hands because so far he hasn’t been at the helm when any exciting new products were released.
iPod sales might have dropped off but its still a big seller and affordable enough to be given as Christmas presents so I can’t see Apple wanting to give up the iPod release date.
I imagine the Apple callender for 2012 will be:
March / April = iPad 3
June at the WWDC = iPhone 5
August / September = new iPods
October / November = finish the year with a new big product in the form of wither a new iMac or MacBook Pro, streamlining the entire laptop range into the MacBook Air design but with different size screens.
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February 27th, 2012 at 12:03 am
Hi Brett,
It’s mostly guesswork, and you may be right, but I’m skeptical about some of your timeline.
Here are a few reasons.
First, the new MacBooks can’t wait until fall, due to both the fact that they’re due for a major upgrade, but even more because of Intel’s rollout schedule for the new Ivy Bridge family of CPUs. The laptop versions will be ready almost perfectly timed to coincide with the WWDC, which inclines me to thnk the strongest likelihood is that laptops will be the marquee introduction at the conference this year.
Also, the iPod is now a mature product, which Apple will continue to sell as long as there is a market, but when was the last time there were any real iPod innovations? The Fall time slot leading into the Christmas season and early n the school year is too valuable to dedicate to a product line that’s been largely superseded by others.
The fall release of the iPhone 4S worked out so splendidly for Apple last year, I’m persuaded that they will go forms repeat with the iPhone 5, plus I don’t imagne they are in any hurry to replace a model that’s still selling robustly.
Just my two cents.
Charles
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February 27th, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Charles Moore
the reason I think the WWDC will be the iPhone launch is because that is Apple’s star product which people of all ages and both MAC & PC owners buy.
There is also the fact that all the new Androids some of which are superior to the iPhone will be out for months by the time Apple rolls out the new iPhone and that means that people whose contracts expired earlier in the year may well go for a fancy new Android because they don’t like the 4S and Apple haven’t yet offered anything new.
The computers whilst certainly gaining in popularity don’t have the same sales or appeal to as many people as iPhone does so they don’t need to dedicate the biggest event of the year to computers
Your point about the Fall slot being to valuable to dedicate to the iPod, I actually kind of agree with you although for a different reason.
Fall is actually an ideal time for the computer launch because as you pointed out its back to school time and the computers can be used for education.
Also thinking about it some more as they have just refreshed the MacBook Air Line I have a feeling the laptops will be next years computer revision and this year will be the year of the iMac which has been around for a long time now so is due for a makeover.
SSD of course will probably become standard except for the big chunky machine thats designed at power users who want memory rather than speed.
iPods save for Christmas, I doubt it will be anything more than a refresher rather than anything rather than cosmetic because the iPod is not sue for a major makeover just yet.
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February 28th, 2012 at 9:18 am
Hi Brett,
A debatable point is whether WWDC actually is the biggest date in the Apple calendar. It has a high profile among the Apple cognizenti,but with the general public, not so much. Say WWDC to the average person, and you’llalmost certainly draw a blank stare. The fall is the big sales season.
Also, the MacBook Air hasn’t been refreshed since June ’11, so it will be a year come WWDC. I think that, combined with the timing of Intel’s delayed Ivy Bridge release, will tip the WWDC to be a MacBook event, although I expect there will be an iMac refresh somewhere as well. The iMac is a low-volume seller compared with the laptops (the MacBook Pro actually still outsells the Air, and it’s definitely overdue for a refresh.
Charles
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