Touchscreen Production Trends Point Toward Fall iPhone 5 Release
Posted by CharlesMoore on Monday May 7, 2012 Under iPhone 5 PredictionsMore indication that a June iPhone 5 release is increasingly unlikely came late last week in a Digitimes report that Taiwanese Apple OEM suppliers TPK Holding and Wintek are anticipating a 15-20% sequential decline in their shipments of touch panels for iPhones the second quarter, “as iPhone 4S is moving into the final stage of its product life cycle.”
That certainly doesn’t sound like Apple is ramping up production of a new model iPhone for a June release. For some context, component production for the third-generation iPad was well underway by early December 2011 in preparation for the product’s March ’12 release.
On the other hand, Digitimes reporters Siu Han and Steve Shen note that according to unnamed industry insider sources, Apple is likely to adopt in-cell touch solutions for its next-generation model, projected for release in the third quarter of 2012.
Of course TPK and Wintek panel production metrics likely only relate directly to iPhone 4 and 4S sales volumes, since as we reported here last month, Apple is expected to source the new iPhone’s in-cell touch panels from Japanese OEMs Sharp and Toshiba Mobile Display (TMD) — not the two Taiwanese firms.
Han and Shen note that Apple’s adoption of in-cell touch, which incorporates the touch layer as part of the panel itself rather than an independent module, will mean that conventional touch module suppliers TPK and Wintek not be receiving touch module orders for the next-generation iPhone, although they should still get some Apple business in continuing to supply panels for the iPhone 4S — which will presumably remain in production at reduced volumes as Apple’s entry-level handset. The article notes that combined shipments of touch panels from TPK and Wintek to Apple in the second half of 2012 are expected to equal only one-third of the volume shipped by the two companies in the year’s first half.
In an earlier article, Han and Shen reported that TPK says it’s developing TOL (touch on lens) single-glass touch solutions, which will be more suitable for the production of high-end customized devices, and that the market will accommodate more than one technology.
However, Focus Taiwan’s Jeffrey Wu reported that Taiwanese OEMs have pretty much conceded iPhone 5 screen supply to their Japanese competition due to the latter firms’ in-cell technology development lead, with the new iPhone unlikely to benefit Taiwanese panel makers.
Wu also noted that compared with the older “on-cell” technology, in-cell touch panels can be made thinner, because the touch sensors are actually placed inside the color filters rather than on top of them. That bodes well for Apple’s presumed efforts to make the new iPhone thinner while incorporating more advanced technologies and feature enhancements. As we noted in the previous report, Redmond Pie’s Paul Paliath says in-cell technology integrates touch functionality into the TFT (thin-film transistor) manufacturing process, eliminating the need for additional glass, which not only reduces manufacturing costs but can facilitate development of a thinner and lighter device altogether.
According to AU Optronics Corp. , two kinds of in-cell multi-touch panel technologies they unveiled back in 2007 integrate touch function features into the TFT-LCD manufacturing process without adding an additional glass. Consequently, it was possible to to retain a glass thickness of 2.2mm with a resolution of 480 x 272 – thinner than conventional touch panel applications. The AUO in-cell panels are also claimed to have superior anti-glare properties to retain proper image color saturation and be readable even in bright sunlight, to eliminate the inconvenience of frequently-required calibration of conventional touch panel applications, and feature real-time true multiple touch point detection which allows users to easily slide their fingers on the screen to better enjoy the touch panel experience.
By Michael Nace
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May 7th, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Always great to have objective coverage. I prefer to examine rumors and forthcoming products from all viewpoints. Though I’m hoping for a June release date I’ll grudgingly wait for an October release if need be, though I hope that’s not the case…
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May 7th, 2012 at 5:34 pm
@spasticpat I don’t think I can wait. If there is not a June iPhone I really think I’m going windows phone with the lumia 900. A ton of people will be in the same boat. The main argument I have for a June release is that Apple can not be so business stupid as to wait until the fall because of all of the iPhone 4 contracts ending. As well don’t forget they should be releasing iPad mini and iPanel in the fall. If they do wait until the fall for the iPhone 5 release I think it will be the first domino to fall leading to the downfall of this great company.
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May 7th, 2012 at 6:39 pm
Apple cannot afford to wait until October. I love my iPhone 4s however for the first time I feel apple are being left behind by the competition (Samsung) give the iPhone 5 a cool formfactor and the same spec as the GSIII and they have caught up. Unfortunately they no longer lead the way.
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May 7th, 2012 at 6:47 pm
If Apple doesn’t provide the 5 at WWDC, I can’t get it most likely. My mom needs to desperately upgrade her phone, and there is no way she can wait till September. So I’m putting all my chips on the table and praying for a summer release.
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May 7th, 2012 at 7:42 pm
yeah if they don’t release it in June I’m going to wait. I’ve been waiting since April of last year, planning to get the new iPhone at last year’s WWDC that didn’t happen. So then I waited until October and it was just a refresh, not that the 4S isn’t amazing, but I was hoping for a new design/form factor and/or LTE now that VZW has better coverage of it in my area. If I absolutely had to get a different phone, Id probably go with WP7. I recently tried it out and it’s very simple and kind of cool…but I still love iOS best.
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May 7th, 2012 at 7:46 pm
And I forgot to mention. As I’ve stated before, Apple needs to release sooner then later for more than just us waiting lol. Verizon Wireless’ reps are pushing LTE Droid phones more than the iPhone 4S (not that it’s working very well
). Here’s another example of it from a Macrumors user:
http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=1333409
I have friends that have wanted to get the 4S and the sales reps at VZW attempted to talk them out of it for LTE Droid phones. As more and more LTE devices are released, they’ll be pushed more and more over the iPhone and in the long run, it probably won’t hurt Apple to get into the game sooner then later.
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May 7th, 2012 at 7:48 pm
If they were giving away WP7 for free with no contract, I would not waste my gas to go pick one up.
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May 7th, 2012 at 8:41 pm
Sorry spastic, with scott on this one :/. Just got my brother to buy a 4s. He needed a phone today, so I told him to get it. Now hopefully my moms phone holds up all the way to iPhone 5.
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May 7th, 2012 at 9:50 pm
Scott, while I agree with you, I’m open to trying new OS’s (not saying you’re not or anything) and really the only reason I’d really get one, other than to try it out, would be if my current Android stopped working and I needed a new phone until the iPhone 5 came out. And the only WP7 phone VZW currently has is the HTC Trophy and it’s cheap as heck on eBay with a clean ESN and practically brand new. I’d basically be using it to tide me over to the new iPhone. I can only use smartphones since I’m grandfathered into unlimited data w/VZW. I definitely don’t think I could use WP7 permanently or as a primary device on a new contract or anything. Sorry if I made that sound like I’d be using it as a permanent replacement to iOS or anything.
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May 7th, 2012 at 11:12 pm
It would at least be different if they announced it in June but didn’t release it until Oct., and cut the price of the 4S. I know this would never happen, but in a way it would let people know whether they need to bother waiting or if would be just a minor upgrade like the 4S.
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May 7th, 2012 at 11:23 pm
@Jay, it would have to be a big big upgrade to make people wait longer though lol
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May 8th, 2012 at 12:05 am
My sister isn’t quite into technology and gadgets as I am, so she told me today that she’s going with the 4S instead of waiting for the 5. She just came off contract with her iPhone 4. My mother comes off contract in November, so she just may be the first one with an iPhone 5 in my family! LOL!
I can honestly say that I was beginning to get frustrated with my poor phone until the 5.1.1 update. Boy, am I glad that update came through! Now, my phone is what I have come to expect from Apple! They squashed a lot of bugs with this last update!
My old 3GS is still limping along as an iPod for my son. It still has no sound, but he still likes playing his little games on it. I’ve actually come to enjoy there being no sound whilst he plays his games! LOL!
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May 8th, 2012 at 12:15 am
The conclusions reached by this report make zero sense to me.
(1) TPK & Wintek, the touch screen suppliers for the 4s report that in Q2 they are winding down production of panels for the 4s. In the second half of year they will produce 1/3 of panels for Apple that they were producing.
(2) TPK is not going to be the supplier of panels for iPhone 5. That will be Sharp and Toshiba.
The only conclusion I can reach from this report is that 4s will continue to be sold but will cease to be the biggest seller in the iPhone lineup near the end of Q2 or beginning of Q3. Obviously, Apple is not going to wind down production of touch panels for one iPhone generation without simultaneously ramping up production of panels for the next generation.
This seems to be one of the strongest indicators of an early Q3 (Apple’s Q4) release of iPhone 5. I think this supports a WWDC iPhone 5 announcement with a release date in early July.
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May 8th, 2012 at 6:31 am
Hi Sooner,
As I noted, TPK and Wintek panel production metrics likely only relate directly to iPhone 4 and 4S sales volumes, but the anticipated slackening of only fifteen to twenty percent seems more consistent with a slackening if iPhone 4S demand as its product life tails off, than the much sharper decline in old-style panel orders that will come with release of a new model phone.
Digitimes’ reference to Q3 would be to the calendar year rather than to Apple’s fiscal third quarter, which as you observe, is already underway.
Note that TPK Holding and Wintek are ‘anticipating’ a 15-20% sequential decline in their shipments of touch panels for iPhones the second quarter, (Apple’s fiscal Q2 results are already in) and the key phrase in the report for me is: “as iPhone 4S is moving into the final stage of its product life cycle,” which I infer to mean as Apple’s main iPhone offering.
Charles
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May 8th, 2012 at 11:21 am
Charles – Thanks for your response. I think we’re on the same page just drawing different conclusions from the data. Let me throw a couple of ideas out there.
(1) Just because overall during Q2 (April – June) they are down on shipments of panels 10-15% does not mean it is a static 10-15% during the entire quarter. That would seem unlikely. I’m assuming that shipments were probably higher in April than they will be in June so 10-15% overall for the quarter could mean a 30% – 40% reduction in June. I’m obviously making some assumptions and speculations here, but that’s what we’re all doing right?
(2) In addition to the cuts in Q2 the article said second half production of panels from TPK and Wintek would be 1/3 of what it was before so about a 66% reduction. I assume that 4s will still be sold after release of 5 as per Apple’s norm. That sounds like 4s will be in that backup role in the second half. It seems to me that starting significant cuts in Q2 and drastic cuts in the second half of the year would be a little premature if we are talking an October release.
Just my take on things …
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May 8th, 2012 at 11:41 am
@SpasticPat
It doesn’t matter if the cell phone reps are pushing LTE phones over the iphone. Apple doesn’t care about what the reps are supposedly doing, because the numbers show that iPhones are still selling like hot cakes. As long as people are still buying the 4S, Apple doesn’t have much incentive to release a new product. If all of a sudden people really stopped buying the 4S and they saw demand drop significantly, Apple would be scrambling around to get the new iPhone out as quick as possible.
With the new iPhone coming out in the next several months, I am absolutely stunned that anybody is buying an iPhone right now. Why wouldn’t they wait until the new one comes out, which will obviously be WAAYYY better than the 4S??
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May 8th, 2012 at 12:04 pm
@mike
Because I’d be willing to bet that more than half of all wireless consumers have no idea when the iPhone 4S came out. All of us that read iPhone news daily are in the minority. Many people will just go buy whatever iPhone is out when their contract is up. I don’t think that way, just dtateing what I have personally observed.
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May 8th, 2012 at 12:06 pm
^^^^^^^^dtateing = stating.
Michael what happened to the edit button?
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May 8th, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Most Phone buyers probably don’t follow release dates, they just go renew when their contract is up.
I am not due to renew until Summer 2013, so the longer the wait, the better for me.
I could always break my current contract with VZW, but I will loose the grandfathered in unlimited Data Package. However I work from home, and typically only use 400-600MB a month, so not really a big deal there.
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May 8th, 2012 at 2:13 pm
I doubt it would matter if the iPhone had LTE, the Verizon reps would still be trying to sell people androids. The iPhone sells itself, but when you’ve got a pile of android phones in the back that you can’t get rid of, THOSE are the ones you’re going to push on people.
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May 8th, 2012 at 2:20 pm
I can’t remember the last time I was in a phone store. I
Ordered my last 3 phones online and got overnighted
To me.
Prior to that it was a 2+ hour process with complaining
Kids. Never again….
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May 8th, 2012 at 2:59 pm
If production moves to Japan for production of the in-cell touch panels might this tie in with the curved glass making machines Apple recently invested in? The largest curved plasma display is currently in Japan at the Kansai airport.
Add a liquid metal back with an Apple hologram and bingo we have a desirable product and all this without mentioning what the phone can actually do.
Having said this, I think the curved glass technology will be better suited to an Apple TV (iTV?) as I can’t see the major benefit of having it on a phone, iPod or iPad for that matter. That it unless as I recently posted, the iPhone/iPod becomes a game controller for the iTV.
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May 8th, 2012 at 3:20 pm
I’m not certain of many things when it comes to Apple, but I do not believe they will wait for 4s sales to start falling and then scramble around to release a new phone. As this article points out those are decisions that must be made months in advance regarding scaling back orders for the current generation’s component parts and getting suppliers to ramp up production of the next generation parts.
Waiting until sales fell off would be poor business because you can’t order, manufacture, assemble, ship, etc millions of next generation phones at the drop of a hat so your sales are going to plummet further while you’re trying to react all while your competition is stealing away your market share. Not to mention that type of scrambling around would rush testing and lead to a poor, buggy product that would embarrass the company and hurt future sales.
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May 8th, 2012 at 9:23 pm
Following on from Bowtie Bob, I saw someone on the train the other day with an android phone, listening to an iPod. Interesting, because it suggests that the iTunes music system catches people in (I only use my iPod for gardening/exercising where I might damage my iPhone). I wonder how many android owners manage their music on an iPod rather than their phone?
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May 8th, 2012 at 9:48 pm
I used to use my iPod touch all the time, and had a droid phone.
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