More Circumstantial Indicators Point To A September iPhone 5 Rollout
Posted by CharlesMoore on Thursday May 10, 2012 Under iPhone 5 Predictions, iPhone 5 RumorAppleInsider Staff report that Apple has negotiated more deals with smaller regional domestic carriers — mot recently with Kentucky’s Bluegrass Cellular, California’s Golden State Cellular, and Kansas’ Nex-Tech Wireless, which will begin offering the iPhone 4S on May 18.
So, what does that have to do with the iPhone 5? Nothing directly, but it does seem unlikely that Apple would be setting up more carrier partners with iPhone 4S stock and promotions for the third week of May if they are planning to unveil their next generation handset at the World Wide Developers Conference less than a month after that.
The Appleinsider report notes that these latest regional carrier partnerships come a month after five other small carriers announced they had signed partner deals with Apple, namely: Alaska Communications, Appalachian Wireless, Cellcom, GCI and nTelos which all began selling the iPhone 4S and iPhone 4 on April 20.
More circumstantial evidence supporting the probability of a late summer (which includes most of September) or early fall iPhone 5 release is found in another AppleInsider report by Mikey Campbell, who cites an unnamed source who Campbell says is “familiar with the matter” and has proved accurate in previous reports, saying AppleCare’s EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) division is allegedly hiring and training new staff on certain aspects of Apple’s upcoming OS X 10.8 Mountain Lion, indicating that a release date may be nearer in the future than has been expected. Possibly at the WWDC? Campbell thinks it could be, noting that while it’s purely speculation, the training could point to a OS X 10.8 debut at WWDC 2012 which runs June 11 to 15.
If there is to be a Mountain Lion release at WWDC, it seems highly unlikely that Apple would choose that venue for a simultaneous iPhone 5 rollout.
Michael Nace has already commented here about a Digitimes report on Wednesday by Monica Chen and Joseph Tsai who say that Pegatron Technology, which is currently a major Apple OEM subcontractor building the iPhone 4S, has reportedly landed orders for a new-generation iPhone to be launched in September. Chen and Tsai note that Pegatron has already finished expanding its equipment and labor force in preparation for fulfilling Apple’s orders for a next-generation iPhone.
Production beginning soon would be about right for starting to build an inventory stockpile to be ready for a September release, which brings us back to the deduction that Apple may be fixing to shift its traditional September iPod refresh slot to the iPhone. I’ve previously observed that it would make eminent good sense to dedicate such a strategic time slot on Apple’s product refresh cycle during the back-to-school season and just ahead of the pre-Christmas sales boom to a money-spinning product like the iPhone rather than one whose star is in decline like the iPod.
No clear confirmation of Apple’s product release intentions, but circumstantial clues continue to pile up pointing to September-ish as the likeliest prospect for the next-generation iPhone.
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May 10th, 2012 at 7:35 am
At the last quarter earnings call Tim Cook said the Mountain Lion will launch in late summer. I think this means August or September ..
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May 10th, 2012 at 7:47 am
@me
…. and that`s means that the new MacBooks and iMacs will launch then too, it think. AND it won’t be so intelligent announce an iPhone and new Macs. And so there were MacBooks, iPhone, iPods, and may a new iPad mini and an iTV in 4 months and that are too many. I´m sure Apple won’t do this. So there must be an iPhone or iPad mini at the WWDC.
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May 10th, 2012 at 9:18 am
Just a different thought, on how it would make sense for a June release with this news. Demand for the 4S will obviously drop, so wouldn’t it make sense to try and get rid of the stock that Apple has? By providing to more carriers, they could accomplish this. Also, the 4S will most likely have a big drop in price. One would assume customer’s on these smaller networks aren’t really looking for the $200+ phone/smartphone, so being able to offer a cheaper iPhone to their customers may be more appealing. Especially if these smaller carriers don’t offer the 1 or 2 year agreements to bring down the cost of their phones. Then there is the technology aspect, would these smaller carriers have the network to support a new LTE powered iPhone 5?
I have no basis for these claims, it is simply throwing some thoughts out there.
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May 10th, 2012 at 9:46 am
Hi Dofe,
I noted that a WWDC Mountain Lion release would be earlier than expected, although June 15 is only a week shy of being technically within Tim Cook’s projected time frame.
I think new iPhones and new MacBooks are both virtually a sure thing, and we’ll see both by October, but probably sooner than that. New Ivy Bridge iMacs should be coming too within that interval.
The iPod’s significance has diminished relatively speaking, and I expect a mild refresh will get tacked on to another announcement somewhere, or will just be executed with an update on the Apple Stores site.
The iPad mini and iTV are still a lot more speculative. If a smaller iPad is coming, that will presumably have some bearing in the iPod touch’s future. With iTV Apple would be breaking new ground, so there’s no historical frame of reference, but I would think sometime I the fall most logically probable.
I think we’ll see Mountain Lion and new MacBooks first, probably iPhones in September, so that would leave the mid-late Fall product release/ refresh slot open to something(s) else then if MacBooks have already been announced. I expect that Microsoft’s upcoming Windows 8 release will be influencing Apple’s product release strategy for the rest of this year as well.
Appleinsider reported yesterday (http://bit.ly/K9knVf) that a Barclays Equity Research investor report by analyst Ben Reitzes released Tuesday projects that the iPad will be carrying a healthy proportion of Apple sales revenues over the next two quarters while the company ‘prepares’ to launch a next-generation iPhone and new laptop models. Barclays believes a refresh of Apple’s MacBook product lines likely ship in the September quarter at more attractive price points, combined with a summer release of OS X Mountain Lion, to blunt any perceived threat from Ultrabooks being pushed by Intel.
Charles
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May 10th, 2012 at 11:41 am
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May 10th, 2012 at 5:34 pm
Why are people disliking my comment? If I were to say something that would support the idea of Apple coming out with a new phone next month I would probably get people “liking” my comment….or it seems to be hard for people to understand the logistics and business side of product development and profits. If anybody really looks into the supporting reasons as to why a summer release vs a fall release…they will realize that the fall release just makes sense – the pieces fit together. The only reason why a summer release is even a question is because Apple did it for 3 years and because that’s what everybody wants. So now everybody is looking for any reason they can to try and support their hope of a new phone next month. It just won’t happen. Mark my words, get upset about it, dislike my comment…but it won’t change the fact. Maybe the only satisfaction you’ll get out of it is that you’ll be playing with a sweet new phone right around the holidays
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May 11th, 2012 at 2:24 am
Everyone may be right, they may launch in the fall. But I still maintain it would be a terrible business decision to do so and Apple will pay a terrible price for such a decision.
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May 11th, 2012 at 9:59 am
@ Mike D. IMO, the reason you are getting dislikes is because of the way you come across. You present your arguement by putting others down “it seems to be hard for people to understand the logistics and business side of product development and profits.”
That isn’t the case at all, I think most do have an understanding and they realize Apple is going to do what is best for their company. The thing is not everyone on the outside agrees on what is the best. With the popularity of the iPhone, Apple could realease it Dec. 26th and it would still be a popular seller and it would still make Apple a boatload of money. So yeah, most folks are simply wanting it sooner rather than later. This blog is designed around the concept of rumor and discussion. Mike does a good job of not being biased in his articles, and as the moderator he should be unbiased. As a fan of Apple, I am sure it ain’t easy for him. Everyone else, they don’t have to be as unbiased and can try to find the positive in these articles.
Just my $.02
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May 11th, 2012 at 11:00 am
@Craigers
Everybody said that last year before they released the 4S. Even with it being a simple upgrade to the 4, the sales don’t show any negative effects. With a major revamp, I’m not sure it would have a negative effect this time around either. Yes, its disappointing but in the end everybody still loves their Apple products. If Apple pulls off a regular cycle of releasing the iphone in the fall, then after this year, when all the iphone 4 people upgrade to the iphone 5, everybody should be on a cycle of their contract ending in the fall (for those that buy the iphone as soon as it comes out).
@T
Michael’s blog posts are definitely biased, and he will openly admit to it (check his comments over the last week or two on Samsung articles he has posted).
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