Why iPhone 5 “In Production” Rumors Still Seem Overly Optimistic
Posted by CharlesMoore on Friday May 25, 2012 Under iPhone 5 Opinion, iPhone 5 RumorI thought Michael Nace’s outline of evidence supporting cases both for and against a June release of the sixth-generation iPhone was an excellent summary. Michael continues to be more optimistic about a World Wide Developers Conference new iPhone release than I am. I’ve pretty consistently been of a mind that it’s going to be a September or more likely October unveiling for reasons I’ve discussed in detail in blogs here since last winter.
That’s an opinion; not an advocacy position. It’s based on an accretion of evidence (albeit none of it conclusive), and 20 years of watching and analyzing Apple and its ways. My deductions could be dead wrong. I don’t have a crystal ball, Apple is as usual doing a masterful job of being inscrutable and mysterious, and as Michael has demonstrated, there is a fair bit of plausible evidence supporting a June release. I just think the contrary arguments are stronger. That said, I won’t be shocked if Tim Cook does announce a new iPhone at the WWDC, which is only two and a half weeks away so it won’t be long now before we know me way or the other.
Of course, if the new iPhone is a WWDC no-show, the debate will just get refined to a narrower time frame — mid-to-late summer, September, or October. However, if it isn’t the WWDC, I’ll be more convinced than ever that October will be the charm. Why? One of the biggest reasons is because the new iPhone, presumed to be a major redesign, is a big enough deal that I think Apple may deem its release an appropriate commemoration of the first anniversary of Steve Jobs’s death, which will also mark almost exactly a year since the iPhone 4S release.
Turning again to The WWDC for a moment, and a rumored “something big” coming soon, an iPhone sixth-gen release would certainly qualify, but not exclusively. Michael notes that his unnamed source thinks that means something more than “just” MacBooks and it’s too early for it to be the iPad mini. I agree on the latter point, but having been a consummate Apple laptop fan for more than two decades, I think the prospect of the first MacBook Pro redesign in more than three and a half years also qualifies as something plenty big.
Apple’s acquisition of the iPhone5.com domain name? Being as they wouldn’t be in complete control of the timing of that, I don’t see being four months in advance of a product release as implausibly early. However, I think it could also be just Apple being Apple and aggressively protecting its trademarks, especially since I’m increasingly doubtful that the next iPhone will be called iPhone 5 or any other number, but will follow the pattern of the New iPad and be named simply the New iPhone. Could be mistaken about that of course.
Then there’s the matter of the cutback in iPhone 4S orders from Apple’s OEM suppliers ans reported discounting. Actually, I think those factors are among the strongest arguments in favor of a new iPhone release sooner rather than later, iPhone 4S sales have doubtless peaked domestically, but the International Data Corporation (IDC)’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker report released this week found that 23 percent of the 152.3 million smartphones that shipped in Q1 2012 were iPhones — a robust 88.7 percent increase year-over-year. thanks to sustained demand for the iPhone 4S following the holiday quarter, and the addition of numerous mobile operators offering the iPhone for the first time.
The Android OS posted even larger gains, with a 59 percent share representing a 145 percent gain year-over-year, but remember that Android use is scattered among many smartphone makers, most with a multiplicity of models. With the iOS, it’s just the iPhone4S and a couple of discounted older models. Even if 4S sales are slumping somewhat in Q2/12, they’re still gong to be healthy, and Apple can be serenely confident that they’ll trend sharply upward again once the new model is released, as happened last year with the October iPhone 4S release. Its propinquity with the holiday sales season makes an October release of a product like the iPhone strategically compelling.
Finally, before I go, Digitimes’ Siu Han and Steve Shen reported yesterday that according to industry sources, Sony is likely to become one of the in-cell touch panel suppliers for the next-generation iPhone, which Han and Shen say they expect to be launched in September or October, The article also says LG Display, Toshiba Mobile Display (TMD) and Sharp have been previously tapped as suppliers of in-cell touch panels for the new iPhone, with LG Display having achieved a yield rate to 70-80%, and TMD expected to enter mass production as scheduled, but Sharp having encountered problems or delays in bringing its yield rate up to an acceptable level, creating an opportunity for Sony to join enter the supply chain, and to begin volume production of in-cell touch panels for the new iPhone at the end of May. If that report is anywhere near close to being accurate, readiness for a new iPhone release in just 2 1/2 weeks seems highly unlikely.
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May 25th, 2012 at 3:53 am
I tend to agree, I think the weight of “evidence” points to an October release. This coinciding with the aniversary of SJ’s death and the fact that he was so heavily involved with the iPhone5 would be a compelling reason for Apple to release it around that time.
I’m still excited to find out what the big news is from the WWDC though.
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May 25th, 2012 at 4:22 am
If apple is going to release the iPhone 5 in october , then what does “something big” or “its the week we’ve all been waiting for” stand for ? Why is it a problem for apple to launch the iPhone 5 in june with an 8 month difference , last year it took them a year and a half to launch the 4s , so why not make up for it ? In my opinion i think that apple will release the iPhone 5 and a new iPod touch with a 4.1 inch and a 16:9 aspect ratio.
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May 25th, 2012 at 4:23 am
in june
A hot comment -- What do you think?
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May 25th, 2012 at 5:50 am
Connecting the release date of iPhone5 with the first anniversary of Steve Jobs’s death is just plain stupid.
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May 25th, 2012 at 11:35 am
I can only speak for my own thoughts here but it seems like while a lot of “evidence” aka rumors point to an October release, there is just enough “evidence” that gives all us crazy iphone 5 fans hope for a June release. If a June release does happen though, I would have to give apple credit for keeping all the production quiet. It would be quite an accomplishment.
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May 25th, 2012 at 12:07 pm
The back and forth on this iPhone 5 release is great! Speculating about the iPhone is officially a hobby; it is a passion and interest that is related but still separate from owning an actual iPhone. In essence, even a non-iPhone user could enjoy engaging in the speculation.
Just to sharpen my position: my primary belief is that something more than iOS 6 and new MacBooks will be revealed at the WWDC. I cannt say exactly what it will be, but there is a pool of rumored iDevices to choose from: iPhone 5, Mini iPad, New iPod, and iTV. If you go by production rumors, none of these could be announced at the WWDC. But that assumes that all of the production rumors [or non-rumors] are accurate. Generally, I think that the iTV production rumor — that it is still not in production — is accurate, since we’ve heard very little about it. That leaves the iPhone 5, iPod, and Mini iPad. I could see Apple releasing the iPod at its traditional timeframe near the end of the summer. So, this leaves the iPhone 5 and Mini iPad.
If you’re optimistic about a big announcement at the WWDC, I think these two devices are possible. The Mini iPad could be much more feasible to announce and release in the early summer — especially since it is rumored to be nothing more than a scaled down version of the iPad 3 — but a release so soon after the iPad 3 could force Apple into competing with its own device. The iPhone 5′s production rumors are middling — you can see how they can be appropriated to support either a June or later announcement. But in my opinion, releasing the iPhone now lets Apple stagger its 2012 releases nicely.
Also, I think that the iPod and Mini iPad will be big sellers for students going back to school. So, I could see them being offered in the late summer/early fall, and the iTV coming near the holiday season.
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May 25th, 2012 at 12:34 pm
@Micheal, for the record I don’t own an iPhone and yet I check the blog every day and enjoy the speculation just as much as everyone else. And that is not a bad prediction either. I’m hoping you are correct.
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May 25th, 2012 at 1:07 pm
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May 25th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Well I’m pretty certain there will be new macs at wwdc from rumors I’ve read all over. Also releasing the iPods and mini iPad closer to the back to school season males the most sense to me. The itv, which I think has HUGE potential will be released closer to Thanksgiving and/or Christmas, the biggest shopping times of the year.
So that leaves the iphone 5 along with the macs this summe. It doesn’t make sense to me to save so many new products strictly for the fall season.
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May 25th, 2012 at 2:00 pm
I don’t have a problem waiting until October for the iPhone 5 if it is really spectacular. However, from a business standpoint I don’t think it’s a good idea for Apple to wait until fall because a lot of iPhone 4 contracts will be ending this June. In a world where a new smartphone comes out every month, you can’t expect every previous iPhone 4 owner to stay loyal to Apple.
Feature wise, at this point Android has almost everything that the iPhone has (multitouch screen, good camera, voice control, app store, ect.). Apple needs to make the iPhone 5 the Ferrari of smart phones. If Apple needs until October to do this, then I will gladly wait.
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May 25th, 2012 at 2:09 pm
An article very well written. I couldn’t agree with you more Charles! I also agree with your comment, Nace. I said a couple weeks ago that it seems like it would be more likely that the mini ipad is released because there isn’t really any new technology that it would need. Just scale it down and produce it. I would buy one for sure, and I bet millions of other people would as well. Then with all the other production rumors and timing for the I5, it would be released in the fall and be tremendously successful. It will be awesome to see what ends up coming out of WWDC!
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May 25th, 2012 at 3:02 pm
I see the situation quite similar like Mike D. does.
1 or 2 months ago I thought Apple could only introduce the iPad Mini at the WWDC, because there were more and more rumors that Apple could launch it in the summer. But then suddenly very interesting iPhone 5 rumors went through the internet. There leaked more and more parts, new iPhones was list in some scripts and there were rumors which said that the iPhone 4s production reduced.
So meanwhile I’m not sure what coming out of the WWDC.
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May 25th, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Eliminating rumors from the equation and looking strictly at supply/availability of the iPhone4:
Wal-Mart – Out of Stock (source: walmart.com)
Radio-Shack – In Store Only (source: radioshack.com)
Target – unavailable (iPhone 4S: $149 (in store only) source: targetmobilestore.com)
Best Buy – In Store Only (iPhone 4: $49 (in store only) source: bestbuy.com)
AT&T – 3-5 days to ship (iPhone 4S ships immediately, source: att.com)
…what are your thoughts?
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May 25th, 2012 at 3:29 pm
…adding to the above post, no special offers at Verizon however, Sprint is making the following offer:
For a limited time, bring us an iPhone from any carrier and get at least $100 off a new
iPhone 4S. (source: sprint.com)
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May 25th, 2012 at 3:38 pm
@Michael DeCook
If this right (i’m to lazy to check it) there must be an iPhone at the WWDC
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May 25th, 2012 at 4:29 pm
@dofe I can verify the Sprint story, got an email about it from them trying to pick me up as a customer…
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May 25th, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Sprint is on the verge of bankruptcy, partly because they put all their eggs in one basket with bringing on the iphone. Their 4G network is very weak compared to the other major carriers so they are trying to get as many people on the 4S with them to help increase their revenue. The fact that they are discounting the 4S, in my opinion, is just them trying to poach customers from the other carriers. Notice how they aren’t just offering a discount for nothing. It requires bringing over an iPhone from another carrier. Sprint’s benefit: they get a two year customer with a $100 loss up front, but then turn around and make money off of the old iphone in the used phone market (probably more than $100 in most cases).
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May 25th, 2012 at 4:50 pm
@ Mike D
Not going to disagree with Sprint’s financial woes (actually due to Clear, not iPhone), but would like to hear your opinion on the lack of inventory of the iPhone 4 along with discounts being bandied around by other retailers not suffering Sprint’s financial shortcomings.
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May 25th, 2012 at 5:00 pm
So since most rumors seem to be opposing themselfs (3.95 inch and a 4.1 inch panel ,etc.) and mostly inaccurate we’ll have to just do with what we’ve got so let’s get started :
1. Apple’s WWDC invite ” it’s the week we’ve all been waiting for ” and since Michael Nace narrowed down the possibilities I’d rather not repeat
2. iPhone 4s production decrease
3. Apple taking over iphone5.com one month before WWDC
4. Apple only went with october last year due to production issues so why not go back to June like every year
5. Countless websites running out of iPhones as stated by Michael Decook
So why not a WWDC release , if u think rumors are suggesting an October release well last month the suggested a June release , it’s just how it goes with rumors , the are all wrong
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May 25th, 2012 at 5:02 pm
@Michael DeCook
The iPhone 4 has been having shortages, clearly. Recently some Apple stores have been told to replace the white iphone 4 with the 4S, however that was for a short period of time and that lock of inventory has been replenished (from what I last read). However, I hear that the black I4 is having the same problem. In my opinion, it is natural to see the 4 being depleted from inventory. Demand is dropping and with a new iphone coming in the next few months they need to clear inventory. FIFO…first in first out…the iphone 4 will go first and that will naturally push more people towards the 4S for those consumers that don’t care to wait for the I5.
I stated a week or two ago that I believe (without any evidence) that when we see the major carriers (Verizon, AT&T, Sprint) start discounting the 4S then we will be within a few weeks of the new iphone. Of course, I could see this going in another direction as well: Apple could hold off on discounting the 4S until the I5 is released and then make the 4S the entry level iphone and the I5 the premium phone.
In either case I think it’s natural to see the iphone 4 inventory clearing out, but I don’t see that meaning that the I5 is coming in a couple weeks. It could, but I personally don’t think so.
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May 25th, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Japolindo beat me to the punch. Successful companies don’t launch products to commemorate someone’s death. Two reasons. (1) Terrible marketing. “The founder of the company died on this day” in no way equates to “I want to buy this cool new phone”. It’s creepy and/or morbid not fun and cool. (2) Many people, me included, would see it as crass if they tried to capitalize on his death in that way. If Apple does anything publicly on the anniversary of Mr. Jobs death I expect it to be consistent with the respectful and understated way they handled his passing. If they want to connect a product launch to Steve Jobs, which it is questionable, it would be his birthday (Feb. 24) or a day significant in Apple’s history.
My speculation is that two strongest possibilities are (1) a WWDC announcement with late June or early July release. (The end of June is the end of Apple’s fiscal quarter so they may want to either sneak those first few days of sales in to boost 3Q sales & profits or wait until July to have a blow-out 4Q.) If this is the case, we are still 5 to 7 weeks out from actual availability. Many people seem to equate announcement with release, but the time from announcement to release has varied for iPhones from 10 to 32 days. (2) A September release. If July doesn’t happen there seems to be a consensus that August is a bad month to release new electronics for a variety of reasons but mostly because most discretionary income is being spent on back to school expenses and summer vacations. Apple previously used September to launch their then flagship product the iPod. That cannot have been by mistake. October is a long time away and there appears to be too much activity and too much of a slow down in 4s production to go that far out. Also, I can’t imagine Apple want to wait any long than required to replace the dated 4/4s design and get an LTE iPhone with a bigger screen on the market.
I am keeping my fingers crossed for a WWDC announcement and early July release, but for the reasons previously stated on this blog I’m going to predict there’s only a 30% chance of that. I’d give September 60% and August and October 5% chance each.
One more thing, I would not put it past Apple to be behind some of these “leaks” as deliberate misinformation not only to throw off their competitors but also because they like to exceed Wall St’s expectations and to learn who is leaking information by giving wrong information to certain sources.
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May 25th, 2012 at 5:52 pm
What if its a device that we never heard any rumors for? A top secret device that apple knows the customers will want. Something they think we have all been waiting for subconsciousness?
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May 25th, 2012 at 6:09 pm
WWDC – mac freshes and iPhone 5
October – mini Ipad and iTV
One major new product at each event, and one refresh. I’m calling the mini-Ipad a refresh since it is just going to be a smaller version of what we already know about.
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May 25th, 2012 at 6:34 pm
@Bankshot
I would semi agree with you expect I wouldn’t qualify the new macs as a “refresh” but I think it will actually be more along the line of:
WWDC – iPhone 5, Mac
September – new iPods (iPod Nano Watch), Mini Ipad
End of October/Beginning of November – iTV
It gives each enough space for its time in the spotlight and spread out just enough that people could justify buying all 3.
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May 25th, 2012 at 6:35 pm
edit: it should read (iPod Nano iOS Smart Watch)
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May 25th, 2012 at 8:33 pm
I love the new intensity as we approach WWDC! And of course the excellent writing, thank you Michael and Charles. I do not see the mini-iPad as competition of the new iPad, and if it is I think it would be offset by all the current iPad owners that would buy a mini-iPad to help with travel needs. We have an iPad2 and a new iPad, and I would buy one or 2 mini-iPads immediately for on the road. iPads rock!
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May 25th, 2012 at 8:49 pm
Wondering if everything is wrong and Apple is thinking completely outside the box.
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May 25th, 2012 at 10:04 pm
Anyone else think it’s kinda of a dick move to captilize on sales by using Steve Jobs death to sell iPhones? It’s pretty disrespectful if you ask me. I think it be nice to say, “This was Steve’s last work and we’re very please to introduce…” Not, “Introducing the iPhone 5, this is coinciding with the anniversity of Steve’s death… Buy now”. I might be over thinking it but it just doesn’t seem right to me.
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May 25th, 2012 at 11:47 pm
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May 26th, 2012 at 6:32 pm
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May 26th, 2012 at 6:44 pm
Great to finally have you commenting, Jamey Aimsey! I’m glad you’ve finally decided to comment, and hope you will continue to do so. You might be right about the “new iPhone. That’s why I’ve set up the new iPhone news blog, just in case.
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May 26th, 2012 at 7:52 pm
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May 27th, 2012 at 2:51 pm
@Jamey great to hear from you and to have another contributor. There have been multiple leaked parts for the iPhone 5/New iPhone reported on here and on other sites as well. Here’s a link to one of the articles. And yeah it says iPod Touch’s new screen but if the iPod Touch is getting a 4.1 inch screen, it almost certainly means the iPhone should/will too:
http://www.macrumors.com/2012/05/22/new-part-leaks-include-taller-ipod-touch-front-panel-iphone-5-cameras/
I think that while Apple will of course do something to remember Steve’s passing, I don’t really believe that they’ll release the new iPhone for it, I mean while Steve was the father of Apple they’re still running a business and they need to do what’s best for the company. That’s what Steve would want.
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