WWDC New iPhone No-Show Not A Surprise; September/October Still Looks Likeliest
Posted by CharlesMoore on Tuesday Jun 12, 2012 Under iPhone 5 Opinion, iPhone 5 PredictionsThere is much disappointment being expressed in responses to Michael’s column yesterday about the iPhone 5 WWDC no-show. I have to say I would’ve been more surprised had there been an iPhone 5 announcement Monday than I am that there wasn’t, although the complete absence of mention is a bit perplexing.
If there had been any vigorous controversy among professional industry-watchers about the earliest likely release of a next-generation iPhone, I might’ve been more optimistic about the prospects of a return to WWDC iPhone refreshes. However, if there was any major dissonance among top-tier financial and market analysts over the past several months about iPhone product release timing, it eluded me. That cohort had pretty much unanimously been forecasting a sixth-gen iPhone release sometime in the September-October 2012 calendar interval, and these guys don’t get paid big $$ for being mistaken a whole lot.
Actually, after what Apple did say at the WWDC keynote yesterday, I’m leaning more toward October, or at best very late September than I had been, being as Apple’s official word in the iOS 6 preview yesterday is that “iOS 6 will be available to iPhone, iPad and iPod touch users this fall.” The 2012 autumnal equinox falls on Saturday, September 22, so strict interpretation of that affirmation would make Tuesday, September 25 the first available new iPhone release date. Since that would be well after Apple’s traditional September iPod refresh time slot, I’m thinking around the first anniversary of the iPhone 4S release in October now seems most probable.
As for what did get announced in the keynote, as a consummate Mac laptop junkie and user for nearly two decades now, I was extremely happy with (most of) Apple’s MacBook revelations. I agree that the new Retina display 15″ MacBook Pro is woefully overpriced, but I expect a 13″ stablemate will be announced before year-end at a more reasonable price of entry. Personally, I’m not enchanted by Retina capability in the MacBook Pro for the same reasons why I’ve not embraced the new iPad, namely that I don’t perceive the compromises in hardware resource overhead and bandwidth clogging to support the ultra high resolution displays are justified by the benefits. However, in both instances, Apple has prudently kept corresponding previous model hardware available for those of us who aren’t Retina convinced (I do think Retina resolution makes good sense for very small panels like the iPhone display). I was very pleased with the refreshments to the existing MacBook Pro and MacBook Air lines, with Intel Ivy Bridge and upgraded video support silicon, USB 3, and more realistic standard RAM and memory upgrade specs. the latter especially with the MacBook Air, whose previous standard 2 GB of had-soldered RAM was ridiculous. I’m finding even the 4 GB of RAM I have in my MacBook anchor Mac only marginally sufficient these days.
Speaking of the MacBook announcements and upgrades at WWDC, it bears noting that predictions made last week by KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo were pretty accurate, and turning focus back to a new iPhone release, Mr. Kuo is also predicting in a research note to investors cited by Appleinsider that “We expect Apple to unveil iOS 6 GM (Golden Master) in early September,” and “Based on the release schedule for iOS 6 GM, there is a very good chance iPhone 5 will start shipping also in early September.”
Appleinsider is suggesting that an early September release would make sense, saying “Based on the release schedule for iOS 6 GM, there is a very good chance iPhone 5 will start shipping also in early September,” noting that a September launch would give Apple a nice sales spike for tis bestselling hardware device before the end of its 2012 fiscal year. They note that 2011′s October iPhone 4S launch resulted in a slower September quarter disappointed Wall Street, not to mention a lot of iPhone fans.
We’ll see. I think early September is still plausible, but that’s still technically late summer, and note that KGI’s Mr. Kuo is only predicting an iOS 6 Golden Master release in early September — not a public release of the OS that early. Apple’s “this Fall” iOS 6 general availability projection points toward late in the month or into October.
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June 12th, 2012 at 11:46 am
If they say fall they mean fall I think…:(
If we look on the calendar and remember the days Apple present and launch somehing we can imagine what the best possibility would look like.
So: If we assume that Apple launch the iPhone in the 25th September and they would launch it max. 14 days after the event then they announce it at September 11. But is that a so good date to announce something ? I don’t think so.
So: Maybe they show us the iPhone 10 days later (remember last year) that make a problem because it is Saturday. And there is one more problem at both scenarios. Normally Apple launch the iPods near the event and the iPod touch will have iOS 6 to so they must launch in the fall too.
So last year Apple released the iPods a week after the events an the iPhone 10 days later so….this would mean (at the earliest): Event at the 18th September—iPod launch at the 25th or 26th September—iPhone launch at the 28th September.
By the way. It think the leaks were fake iPhones because i can’t imagine that there are so many parts so long before the release.
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June 12th, 2012 at 12:37 pm
@ Dofe
I agree with your timeline, however I disagree with your opinion regarding the authenticity of the phone parts. I believe at one time, they were the iPhone 5, but Apple probably has changed the design since then. Where I work, we get prototypes of machines for restaurants that could easily be stolen/sold as a working prototype that surfaces as being the main form of the product that was developed, but then soon after the actual product is marketed and the manager of the restaurant may realize he was sold a prototype and not the actual thing. So it’s very possibly that these iPhone parts were intercepted somewhere. Who knows, this could be an idea for the iPhone 9…
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June 12th, 2012 at 1:22 pm
@Sean
Sometimes I think that is maybe a prototype with the dimensions of the new iPhone. Because the case looks relativ similar to the iPhone 4S and maybe the prototype has a metal back because the new components need it for some features we don’t know yet. But then it is unusal that there are so many different supplierstores which sell it, or ?
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June 12th, 2012 at 1:50 pm
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June 12th, 2012 at 5:27 pm
@m I guess we’ll have to wait until then to find out…
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June 12th, 2012 at 5:46 pm
I have been a iPhone follower since the original was released. However, I am pretty much done with apples waiting game. I am going to try an android and it will be the Samsung Galaxy S III. Sorry, I am through with the waiting game.
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June 12th, 2012 at 6:17 pm
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June 12th, 2012 at 6:29 pm
No need to be sorry, J; the higher powers at Apple shan’t be offended! We will receive a new product when they’re ready to release a new product. Why can’t people accept that?
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June 12th, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Um id rather not spend money on a Galaxy III when the iPhone 5 will blow it out of the water in a few months LOL yeah PROLLY gonna be impatient…..
right….
Yeah ill wait and spend my money on a REAL product this October
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June 13th, 2012 at 2:12 am
Looking forward to all the rumors throughout this summer lol, this new iPhone better be worth the wait!
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June 13th, 2012 at 6:54 am
Wouldn’t be so sure of that GetSwole. If what happened between the 4S and galaxy S2 is any indicator of how the next two phones will compare, I don’t think being blown out of the water will be an accurate comparison. Samsung’s galaxy phones are targeted to the same buyer group as the iPhone, and do a good job of matching if not exceeding the iPhone’s abilities in certain areas.
I had an iPhone 3GS, now a Galaxy S2, and I’m familiar with the performance of the 4S as my sister has one. Both phones are very strong, solid pieces of technology with advantages and drawbacks. Assuming the new iPhone and GS3 follow a similar trend, saying one will blow the other out of the water just isn’t likely.
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June 13th, 2012 at 8:27 am
How im feeling right now: Apple=safe, boring, reliable. Android=exciting, fun, cool, but unreliable. Man sometimes that’s a hard choice. It’s fairly pathetic that I have to keep as many icons on my second page so I can see more of my customizable wallpaper…
I had pretty much just accepted this, but I’ll admit i have been catching up on android since Monday….
I hope that they (for the purposes of keeping the lid on the new iPhone) are holdin back some info…. Though I guess that’s not likely since developers would need to know…
A live icon or an updated weather app even (how sad) would have been cool…
Notification center is useless, was hoping they’d update that as well… I forget it’s even on the phone…
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June 13th, 2012 at 8:27 am
I can’t wait any longer. I really tried, but my ATT service locally is horrendous, and my 3GS gets slower every day, useless. If it weren’t that bad, I’d wait.
I am thinking Samsung Galaxy S3, but am waiting until after next week to find out more about windows phone 8. If the Lumia 900 can be upgraded to WP8, but will likely go there.
Wish I would have grabbed a 4S last year.
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June 13th, 2012 at 8:28 am
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June 13th, 2012 at 9:02 am
Well, we know it’s bad when Rush Limbaugh (please, this isn’t a political comment; he’s a big Apple fan) was lamenting the Mac Pros not having Thunderbolt on them:
http://macdailynews.com/2012/06/12/rush-limbaugh-okay-apple-wheres-my-mac-pro-with-thunderbolt/
At the moment, when you have a tagline like “The week we’ve all been waiting for” and you disappoint all but (well, even the) biggest fanbois, I’m starting to think the bloom is off the rose for Apple. What, exactly in that keynote, were we all waiting for? Retina MacBooks? A map app? the quantity of iTunes accounts? (don’t get me wrong on that one, I like that there is an economy there) These were all nice things, but not what we’ve all been waiting for.
Apple needs to put on it’s big boy pants and knock off the secrecy crapola. When you have a build up like that, followed by two keynotes (4S and this last one on Monday) with lukewarm products, people are going to look elsewhere for excitement in their entertainment devices. Apple is becoming like the (forgive the analogy, please) high school cheerleader that you finally get to date, only to find out she’s a bore, and all she wants to talk about is herself, and how great she is.
I mean, seriously, iphone5newsblog has been around for two years, and there is still no iPhone 5, nor even a hint of it? What if September/October comes and there is no new iPhone? Blasphemy, you say? What were you saying at the end of May last year?
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June 13th, 2012 at 10:29 am
16 weeks to go!
I decided to eek out a little longer with my 3G by restoring it back to factory. It’s a little better but still slow to the point that when it receives an email it becomes unusable until it appears in the inbox!
I have had a hands on of the SG3 and it really is impressive from a power point of view but just feels ‘cheap’ and the OS just doesn’t seem as sleek as iOS. Add to that that an anti virus app is needed due to malware infestations it’s not worth the bother and seems too much like Microsoft Windows 98 to me.
Above all I pulled out an old folder where I keep system restore disks from machines I have had in the past and the Mac ones go back to OS 8.5 and nostalgia hit me. If it’s only 4 months more I can wait.
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June 13th, 2012 at 11:13 am
If apple is increasing the screen size, don’t the developers need that scoop? Did they get it?
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June 13th, 2012 at 12:06 pm
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June 13th, 2012 at 12:34 pm
I don’t understand why people say that Android phones seem so unreliable. Maybe it’s because people buy the really cheap ones? If you are trying to compare a $200 iphone to an Android, make the comparison to a $200 Android phone. I bought the HTC Incredible just after it came out and it has worked like a champ ever since I got it. It still works great and I will be fine to wait a few more months for the new iphone to see if its even worth purchasing. However, based on what happened last year when everyone was hoping for the I5 and got the 4S, I’m not sure that the games Apple plays would be worth signing up for.
In the Android world you will ALWAYS have a great, reliable, and recently released phone available whenever you want. A few months ago was the Droid Razr Maxx (and is still one of the best available), and now is the GS3. How many people are ticked at Apple for making them choose between the old school 4S or having to wait longer? You don’t see that in the Android world.
There are pros and cons to either Apple or Android. I’m probably one of the least biased toward any device…between my wife and me we have an imac, a toshiba laptop, an ipad, iphone 4, and HTC Incredible. I see and experience the difference between the Apple/PC/Android world every day. In my opinion, I don’t see much benefit in the iPhone 4 over my Droid Incredible. There are some things that are nice, other things that aren’t. The other thing I’ve noticed is that there are some features that iPhones don’t have (Droid does) and then when they implement those features, Apple makes a big deal of it…so it seems like Apple has some new innovative thing (like facebook integration, turn by turn navigation, notification center) that Android phones have had for years.
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June 13th, 2012 at 12:51 pm
@Mike D. I completely agree. I hade an iphone 3g till it finally died a little over a year ago on me when I purchased an off contract htc inspire. I had low expectations for the phone but it does everything I need it to. While I still miss some things about my iphone, My android phone has been running quite well and although I was hoping for an i5 announcement this week so I could decide if I wanted to go back to the iPhone or go the a galaxy s III I think they will be very even in features except the galaxy will have a bigger screen since apple will not go to a 4.8 in screen size. But I think i’m just going to wait till the iPhone 5 comes out in october and then decide if I want that or the next nexus device. I’m in no hurry i suppose since my phone seems to be running great.
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June 13th, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Mike d- I agree with you for the most part… I used a dinc for a year and loved it… Then it started having issues and ive had a miserable android experience since…. Tried the Thunderbolt, incredible 2, fascinate, and galaxy nexus… And had variety of problems with each. I’m not against android at all, just got tired of trying… I know I might have just had a bad run of luck… That’s why I’m reconsidering a bit.
Don’t developers need to know the screen size of the new iPhone?
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June 13th, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Personally I can care less if it’s iOS or Android, as long as the quality apps are there.
Unfortunately, all the higher quality educational ones come out for Apple almost exclusively.
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June 13th, 2012 at 1:33 pm
@Core 2
I would definitely agree with you on the higher quality educational apps. Apple definitely has the leg up in that area.
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June 13th, 2012 at 1:39 pm
@Daveydog, I’m not sure developers *need* to know the size of the screen, as it changes (well, sort of). When you enlarge/reduce an image, the effective screen size changes. Think the issues that a computer programmer (especially games) would have with having to know and program to a set screen size (I’m talking pixels here). You’d have to have various code for each screen resolution, and on a PC, that would be a killer. What do you do when the new WXQJKVGA comes out with it’s 4,097 x 16,387 (yes, made up…) resolution comes out?
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June 13th, 2012 at 2:27 pm
My cousin works for Google’s legal department in California and uses an iPhone 4s… says it all I reckon!
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June 13th, 2012 at 2:54 pm
@Vernicularis, that Google allows others to use whatever phone they want and they’re not control freaks?
@Michael, did my comment #15 get eaten? It wasn’t the most positive, but I didn’t think it was that bad…
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June 13th, 2012 at 3:14 pm
As long as you don’t mention Rush Limbaugh, your safe.
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June 13th, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Was anyone truly expecting the new iPhone at WWDC? I certainly wasn’t, since the banners went up for iOS 6 went up I knew for sure because they need to have the beta out for developers for a while before its shipped with the new iPhone, and not shipped with 5.5 or 5.2 or something like that. I think we’re gonna se exactly what happened last year. I think we can count on a very early October release date along with the final version of iOS 6.
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June 13th, 2012 at 3:34 pm
I was hoping all last year that we would see iOS 5 and a new iPhone in September, but when Apple says Fall, they mean Fall. I just downloaded the iOS 6 beta onto my iPhone 4 and it runs very well, definitely not as buggy as the first beta of iOS 5. Is it much different? The UI hasn’t changed much at all since the original release of the iPhone, but functionality wise, I think it polishes on iOS 5. Do not disturb is GREAT, no more late night calls, I love it. The Facebook integration is really cool, very seamless. When I get a phone call, I finally have the option to hit decline, I love that. And the other options for the phone are cool as well, very useful as to not giving the person calling you the cold shoulder. I don’t have Siri on my 4, but I will be downloading the beta onto my iPad so I’ll see how much better Siri has gotten. FaceTime is cool, just a bit more convenient. Don’t use the photo steam a whole lot, but the shared photo streams might actually get me to use it a lot more, so that was a great idea. I’m happy Apple added in attachments into Mail, that should of been there all along. The offline reading list for Safari is really useful. The Accessibility and Guided Access features are very nice features … it shows Apple actually does care for its customers. Passbook seems cool, maybe bluetooth nfc access for the next iPhone? It’s possible. But my favorite feature is Maps, and not just because of the navigation either … the fly over view is VERY cool and I think a lot of you will enjoy it. The music app looks beautiful and yea, that’s about all I’ve found so far. I know there are other hidden features so anyone else who has the beta should be on the look out. I do wish they put in live app icons and more widget customization but hey, they gave us the twitter and facebook widgets in the notification center so that’s pretty awesome. I give iOS 6 a thumbs up, definitely. Can’t wait to see how the next iPhone will utilize it, I’m excited!
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June 13th, 2012 at 3:45 pm
How is OS 6 working with your apps on the phone is there issue with it? How easy was it to put on it?
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June 13th, 2012 at 4:15 pm
@core2 I only mentioned him as a commenter on Apple products, not as a political one. I suppose Mr. Beck is out as well?
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June 13th, 2012 at 4:15 pm
(oh, and I laughed at your response…) My co-workers are wondering about me now…
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June 13th, 2012 at 4:24 pm
The apps are buggy now and again guys, but it’s seriously a big improvement. I’m very mad because after I posted my comment, I tried the 3G over FaceTime at my house and then I tried the Turn by Turn nav and fly over feature in my car, and neither worked! Apple is limiting 3G FaceTime and Turn by Turn to the 4S only as I just read an article online about it! I guess because the 4 can’t handle it? I’m calling b.s. on that though. So if Siri doesn’t give you any incentive to upgrade to the 4S, I guess the turn by turn, fly over feature, and 3G FaceTime should be more? Forget that, I’m just going to wait on the next iPhone (which will probably come with another exclusive feature). I don’t like what Apple is doing with stuff like this but I guess it’s all a marketing strategy. Unbelievable.
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June 13th, 2012 at 4:26 pm
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/06/13/facetime_over_3g_with_ios_6_limited_to_iphone_4s_ipad_2_or_later.html
Here’s the article everyone, I guess I’ll have to get over it and wait until January so I can finally, fully enjoy all of the new features iOS 6 has.
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June 13th, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Some features may not be available in all countries or all areas. Flyover and turn-by-turn navigation will be available only on iPhone 4S and iPad 2 or later. Cellular data charges may apply.
Siri will be available only on iPhone 4S and iPad (3rd generation) and requires Internet access. Siri may not be available in all languages or all areas, and features may vary by area. Cellular data charges may apply.
Shared Photo Streams requires iOS 6 on iPhone 4 or later or iPad 2 or later, or a Mac computer with OS X Mountain Lion. An up-to-date browser is required for accessing shared photo streams on the web.
FaceTime over a cellular network requires iPhone 4S or iPad (3rd generation) with cellular data capability. Carrier data charges may apply. FaceTime is not available in all countries.
VIP list and VIP and Flagged smart mailboxes will be available on iPhone 4 or later and iPad 2 or later.
Offline Reading List will be available on iPhone 4 or later and iPad 2 or later.
Made for iPhone hearing aids require iPhone 4S.
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June 13th, 2012 at 5:23 pm
@Core2 – Yup, that’s at the bottom of the website. Oh well, I’ll get over it.
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June 13th, 2012 at 5:25 pm
I’m ticked too over 1st iPad getting left out as well.
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June 13th, 2012 at 6:58 pm
That’s probably one of the few things I dislike about Apple, trying to make things exclusive. I don’t see why they feel the need to do that … they may not see AS MANY iPhones/iPads, but they’re still going to sell, regardless. It’s all marketing, that’s for sure!
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June 14th, 2012 at 1:44 pm
@Joe, I can give you 560,000,000,000 reasons why they do that.
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June 14th, 2012 at 9:10 pm
@Jeff, I’m not really arguing against Apple doing that … I’m just frustrated with it, that’s all. I’m sure there are tons of reasons and I would do the same thing if I was in that position (I wish I worked for Apple)
… but I guess I just need to learn to be more patient. Good things come to people who wait (or so I’ve heard).
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June 15th, 2012 at 1:50 am
Yeah I know android comes out with new phones repeatedly. But really, are they any different? Maybe a little thinner, or in the razr maxx case, more battery. But they still have the same android software. That’s the only reason why I love my iPhone. Apple makes new software for their new hardware. Android is totally software. Htc, Motorola , Samsung may have a lil different thing, but it is still android. It would be WAYYYY better if Samsung made its OWN software, not touch wiz mixed with android. Or htc sense mixed with android. Imagine, Samsung touch wiz from the ground up. Htc sense from the ground up. Goodbye android. That’s why I have iPhone. They made their software so it can work nice and crisp specifically for their hardware. I think that’s why android has its “malfunctions” every once in a while. Just my opinion.
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June 15th, 2012 at 5:26 pm
@Parish … To be honest, I think my iOS 6 beta 1 on my iPhone is more stable than a lot of Android software out there!
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