Data-Crunching Analyst Suggests Repeat Of Apple’s iPhone 4S Upgrade Formula
Posted by CharlesMoore on Monday Jul 9, 2012 Under iPhone 4S Opinion, iPhone 5 Opinion, iPhone 5 PredictionsAsymco blogger Horace Dediu is a number-cruncher and IT commentator who researches and graphically interprets and analyzes various industry metrics. His blog is usually worth a look. An eight-year former employee of Nokia, with a MBA from Harvard Business School, Mr. Dediu, who lives in Helsinki, Finland is both experienced and well-connected in the fields he covers.
In an interview with Network World’s John Cox, published Friday, Mr. Dediu makes some interesting observations about last year’s iPhone 4S release, and what it portends regarding the upcoming release of a sixth-generation iPhone — AKA iPhone 5. He observes that the 4S was widely criticized by the tech press for a variety of purported shortcomings, but it became by far the best-selling iPhone model to date, because, says Dediu, it was a very much improved product over the iPhone 3GS, which was what most users who upgraded their iPhones has been using, given that average time interval of service for smartphones is about 24 months, and because the 4S, despite the criticisms of its detractors, offered a solid set of unique feature upgrades like Siri, a Retina Display and a higher-resolution camera. Dediu predicts that this formula will be applied again for the next iPhone and that it will be equally successful, adding that the tech press has been a good counter-indicator for market success.
If I’m interpreting his comment accurately, that would seem to imply another evolutionary upgrade rather than a revolutionary redesign from scratch, which would no doubt disappoint fans and pundits who have been anticipating the latter. Personally, my deductive anticipation has been that the 2012 iPhone will be a more revolutionary departure than the iPhone 4S was, but it’s difficult to gainsay that Apple’s strategy last fall was mistaken given the 4S’s stellar sales performance.
I suppose it also depends considerably on how one defines “revolutionary.” Would a 4-inch (ish) display, 4G support, and upgrades to existing features like Siri and the cameras be considered revolutionary enough?
Meanwhile the school of thought that’s been predicting a September new iPhone release got a bit of support from the Japanese Apple-watcher site Macotakara’s danbo, in a blog mainly about “a Chinese reliable source claiming that Apple’s forthcoming iPad mini will be produced by Foxconn’s new manufacturing facility in Brazil. However danbo also notes that this same insider source tells him that the rumored possibility of a new iPhone shipping in September, that was reported by DigiTimes “is getting closer to truth.”
Make of that what you will.
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July 9th, 2012 at 1:41 am
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July 9th, 2012 at 4:07 am
Even if the iPhone 5 isn’t a new design, I’ll still be happy with it and buy it.
Apple has yet to disappoint me. Sometimes I’ll feel disappointed, but then change my mind later.
Like at WWDC this year when there was a no-show, I immediately felt disappointed.
But then I realized that if the iPhone 5 wasn’t released at WWDC, all that means is they have even MORE time to perfect the next iPhone.
I prefer more perfection rather than a rushed product with more mistakes. If Apple needs more time, so be it. I was no longer disappointed after thinking about that.
The world doesn’t revolve around me, so why get mad at Apple for not being ready to release their product?
Its not my product, so Im ok with them taking more time to perfect their upcoming device.
And if the iPhone 5 is the same design, who cares?
Since when was the iPhone 4 an ugly design right?
Everyone was going nuts over how amazing the iPhone 4 looked,
and I am still pleased with it.
Some people are bored with the iPhone 4 design, and thats understandable.
Plus whats not exciting about a “new design?” Everyone likes new and improved.
It refreshes the hype when there’s a new design.
Adding a new design is like reviving an old product from the dead, and making it more exciting again.
Im all for a new design, but if Apple chose to keep the iPhone 4 design, I’d still be happy with it either way.
The guy in this article is predicting it, and Im accepting the possibilities.
(Sorry if i repeated myself too much. Its really late & I’m tired…)
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July 9th, 2012 at 6:34 am
I still don’t see the logic behind the argument. The iPhone 4S is the best selling iPhone because it is the latest released iPhone. The “new” iPhone will always be the best selling iPhone until the mobile phone userbase stabilizes and the sales plateaux.
I WILL be disappointed if the next iPhone is not a re-design for many reasons:
1, Personally, I don’t like the brick design of the 3rd generation iPhone (4 & 4S).
2, 2 years with the same design is enough, especially for a company that is supposed to highly regard aesthetics.
3, This iPhone is supposed to be the last hands on work from Steve Jobs, so I’d be bitterly disappointed if he just rehashed the same old design.
The iPhone is due a revolution. It’s time the iPhone looked beautiful again.
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July 9th, 2012 at 8:43 am
The way I understood it, it means that the new iPhone WILL have a new design, and then the iPhone after it will have that same design, so like an iPhone 5 and then an iPhone 5S. That’s use my take on what he said.
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July 9th, 2012 at 10:29 am
any design will be better than my 3G i have now so i wont be disappointed.
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July 9th, 2012 at 11:05 am
The iphone is fragile, and it never leaves my otterbox. I could care less about the design, since i’m only seeing the screen. What does a new design mean anyway? They are all roughly the same shape & size, most variations being determined by screen size and battery. A little more rounded edges or less is irrelevant.
Give me a larger screen with the next generation of gorilla glass, faster processor with more memory so there is less lag. Some software upgrades, and keep it a global phone. I’ll be very happy with the new IP5, and Apple will get my money.
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July 9th, 2012 at 11:19 am
Totally agree with Darren. Of course it is the best selling iPhone to date. It is now being offered to more carriers and to China as well as other new customers that did not have access to it before.
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July 9th, 2012 at 11:30 am
Your logic is flawed, I’m afraid.
Dediu is essentially saying that each new iPhone needs to be a significant upgrade to the penultimate iPhone release. Following that train of thought, being only incrementally better than the current generation iPhone is alright, as long as it outclasses the one before that.
In a nutshell:
iPhone 3GS >> iPhone ; iPhone 4 >> iPhone 3G ; iPhone 4S >> iPhone 3GS ; iPhone 5 >> iPhone 4
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July 9th, 2012 at 1:22 pm
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July 9th, 2012 at 2:44 pm
I’m not buying an iphone 4S v2 and i’m sure alot of ppl agree with me
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July 9th, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Apple has released the same phone 4 times (initial iPhone 4 release, iPhone 4 CDMA (Verizon) release, white iPhone 4 release, and iPhone 4S release). Each release of basically the same phone garnered hype and sales, which is ridiculous when you think about it this way. I don’t want another 4. If it’s the same case, and not even a larger screen, then it will really make me wonder what Apple has been doing since 2010. There are many times when I would die to be a fly on the wall in Apple’s design room and watch the magic happen on the drawing board, but at this point, it wouldn’t surprise me if what they’re doing now is plotting more ways to make the iPhone 4 seem new.
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July 9th, 2012 at 4:24 pm
“This changes everything again, all over again, once more.”
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July 9th, 2012 at 6:04 pm
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July 9th, 2012 at 6:20 pm
Wait… Call of Duty has new map packs?
I think the natives here are getting restless.
There isn’t much in the rumor mill, and the things that had us going aren’t anymore.
Oh well…Only 84 more days until 10/1/2012!
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July 9th, 2012 at 6:51 pm
I really don’t mind having a phone that looks like the iPhone 4/4S. You can just add a larger screen with curved class (the iPhone 4′s completely boxy flat front feels somewhat awkward in the face), 4G LTE, faster processor and graphics or any other new features you can think of, and it’ll be ok. I don’t know if you catch my drift here but what I mean is something a little like the new retina MacBook pro, it looks like the old MacBook pro but it’s design is a little bit changed (it’s just thinner but that makes it look way different) and it’s insides are jampacked.
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July 9th, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Very interesting. When you factor in the length of carrier contracts it seems to make sense for apple to refresh the way they do.
I wonder if contracts were even longer, say 36 months if we would end up seeing phones like iPhone 3gs+ and similar 3rd version refreshes. Can’t argue with a business strategy that works, even if it ends up disappointing people who expect each new version of the iPhone to be a revolutionary change.
You end up seeing so many people who are on the edge of their contracts and eligible for upgrades stuck in upgrade limbo waiting to hear some conformation of what the new version of a phone will be like before making a decision.
Was the same thing with me when I started following this blog before the iPhone 4s was announced around the end of my contract with my 3GS. I ended up harboring a bit of resentment for apple because I waited so long between my contract and the delay in announcement of the upgrade to the iPhone4, then was kinda dissapoionted when it was just a 4s. Maybe I should have just been upset with AT&T for locking me in for 2 years and making me miss out on the iPhone 4 which was more of an exciting upgrade when it was announced.
I ended up wanting to give Android a shot though once I saw the 4s was a refresh so I suppose there is no perfect business strategy to capture everyone.
Definitely am interested to see what the latest iPhone will be like though. Love the blog have been following almost daily for a long time. Keep up the good work guys, I’m sure we’ll get some more juicy rumors soon!
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July 9th, 2012 at 7:29 pm
GetSwole, yes that all makes sense. What I really meant to emphasize was the way Apple can attract hype, free press, and record-breaking sales without producing a game-changer, and that their business strategy depends on milking it for all it’s worth. For example, the Verizon iPhone was not new (although technically it required an interior redesign), but it was still big news, and release sales were what you would expect from a NEW Apple product. Sure, they opened up a portion of the market that they didn’t have before, but it was still a year old. The 4S really didn’t have much in the way of changes. Don’t kid yourself. Their biggest selling point was Siri, and it can be argued (although Apple thinks differently) that Siri doesn’t require A5. The basic Voice Control infrastructure is already there, but not the backend connectivity. The 4S and 4 are different products? The 4S is a refinement of the iPhone 4. That’s indisputable. I will consider it a “new product” when they do a top-to-bottom redesign. An analogy would be remixing a song in the recording industry. Would you be satisfied if your favorite band made a chart-topping album 3 years ago, and then spent the last 3 years remixing all of the songs? It would get old, and you would move on to better bands. What I’m saying is Apple has had 1 design. They change it a little, sell it. Change it a little, sell it. Good business plan if you are Apple, but the rest of the smartphone industry moves at a little faster pace than a 24+ month cycle. Ii Apple wants to stay on top, I think that they may need a game-changer, soon.
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July 9th, 2012 at 7:56 pm
Another way of putting it: it will be hard for iPhone 4S and even iPhone 4 owners to justify buying an iPhone 4S+ if all it has is NFC, better hardware, and a better camera. They’ve pretty much gotten all of the sales they can out of this design. All they have to do is make the screen bigger and redesign the case and it will be fresh.
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July 9th, 2012 at 9:06 pm
@Aidan
Well Apple has only been using the iPhone 4 design for 25 months now. 2 years VS 2 years and a few months isn’t very far off from the “24+ month cycle” that “the smartphone industry moves at.”
Apple’s following that “24+ month cycle” still, just like “the rest of the smartphone industry.”
iPhone 4 was released June 2010. Its July 2012, 25 months later. Whether they released the iPhone 4S late or not doesn’t matter really… because they’re still on that 24 month minimum cycle that you talked about…
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July 9th, 2012 at 11:08 pm
@GetSwole I don’t mean to intrude but Aidan stated that the Smartphone industry goes at a much faster pace than Apple’s 24+ month cycle. Not that the rest of the industry utilizes the 24+ month cycle.
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July 9th, 2012 at 11:08 pm
@GetSwole I don’t mean to intrude (but I am intruding) but Aidan stated that the Smartphone industry goes at a much faster pace than Apple’s 24+ month cycle. Not that the rest of the industry utilizes the 24+ month cycle.
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July 9th, 2012 at 11:28 pm
@Christian
oh really? WOW I’ve been misreading everything lately haven’t I?
I need to pay more attention -.-
I think that was the 3rd time I’ve misread something and commented about the complete opposite of what they said haha.
Sorry Aidan
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July 10th, 2012 at 5:22 am
Using the, approximately
,24 month cycle model, then we should be due for a new generation iPhone, rather than simply a refresh. That has been true for all but the very first iteration.
Generation—1———|2————-|3————–|4?
New Gen —–iPhone—3G————4—————NOW!!!
Refresh ————————3GS————4S——
I’ve not taken into account the 4 white or the 4 verison as they are basically just the 4 and have never been called any different.
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July 10th, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Samsung is moving at about a 13 month cycle with their flagship smartphone (Galaxy S series), not accounting for releases in specific countries that were held back due to injunctions. And they have also worked on the Nexus and Note smartphones since 2010. Compare that to Apple, where I’m holding an iPhone 4 from 2010 and an iPhone 4S that is still being sold in 2012, and you can’t tell them apart unless you inspect them carefully or delve through their features. The reason they can do this is because their products are always hits, just like Pixar is with movies, and because they have the most loyal fanbase in tech history. Another reason is their signature clean-and-simple user interface approach in iOS that keeps people from jumping ship. Apple’s precise and accurate “rifle” approach obviously has its advantages over Samsung’s “shotgun” approach, but giving the competition 2 years to eclipse you with something big seems like quite a big window. Apple strives for perfection. Imagine what it would be like if they tried being on the cutting edge more often, too.
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