New Survey Indicates That iPhone 5 Demand Higher Than Ever
Posted by Michael Nace on Tuesday Jul 24, 2012 Under Apple News
Excitement over the iPhone 5 is nothing new. But a new survey shows that the iPhone 5 continues to grow in demand, despite the long wait and robust Samsung Galaxy S 3 sales.
For those who have been following the iPhone 5 rumors since the late summer of 2010, the notion that Apple would have waited this long to release the much-anticipated overhaul of the iPhone 4 might seem crazy. In the course of that time, numerous new Android smartphones have hit the market, including the recent Samsung Galaxy S 3, which to date has sold 10 million units. While that little victory is being celebrated in Android circles, it stands to be dwarfed once the iPhone 5 is finally released.
A new ChangeWave survey, as reported on by Computerworld and host of other tech media sites, indicates that the iPhone 5 is set for a massive sales wave:
“Advance demand for the ‘iPhone 5′ is strikingly higher than we’ve seen for any previous iPhone model,” said Dr. Paul Carton, 451 / ChangeWave’s VP of Research. “Overall smartphone sales should spike to an all-time high this fall, and of course Apple is going to be the number one beneficiary. But besides Apple, and to a lesser degree Samsung, no other manufacturer is likely to benefit from this coming wave of demand.”
More good news for Apple: 14 percent of consumers say they are Very Likely to purchase an iPhone 5 while a further 17 percent say they are Somewhat Likely, the survey said, concluding: “Advance demand for the next-generation iPhone is strikingly higher than for any previous iPhone model.”
What’s particularly interesting is the fact that polls like these have been claiming massive sales for the iPhone 5 for well over a year now.
Last year almost to the day we posted this article, which outlined a survey in which it was determined that “35% of all consumers will purchase the iPhone 5.” Not 35% of Apple customers. Not 35% of smartphone users. 35% of all consumers. That’s a bold statement, and one that Apple could only been seen capable of achieving.
Following up that study, Charles Moore posted an article last September that outlined an InMobi survey which found that 41% of mobile users were set to buy the iPhone 5 in September 2011.
Obviously, when you compare these big claims to the more recent survey quoted above, the new data appears lackluster compared to big numbers like 35% and 41%. And the difference in these survey findings is the difference between the iPhone 5 being a top-selling mobile device as a true cultural icon; something that the average person would come to possess that would completely change their lives.
In order for the iPhone 5 to reach that level of ubiquity, it would need to have some wide-ranging, new features that would change the face of everyday life. And no, I’m talking about the segway. I’m talking lightbulb. Is there anything rumored to be coming to the iPhone 5 that would come close to rising to the level of a game-changer like that?
NFC is one possibility, particularly in the U.S., where we, the hyper consumers, spend, therefore we are. Something like NFC technology could become so pervasive that it could lead to an economic stimulus in and of itself.
However, there are still many roadblocks to NFC becoming a mainstream feature, no so much because of limitations in the technology, but rather the massive rollout needed at the retail level, as well as trepidation among mobile users who are leery of making their money so accessible. In an informative piece on Technology Review today, Christopher Mims explores why NFC has still yet to take off, and why it still may end up being a no-show in 2012:
NFC has been in phones since 2006, so why aren’t we all using digital wallets by now? As futurist Scott Smith points out on Twitter, one of the problems is that “banks and operators would want a pound of digital flesh somewhere.” Indeed, even as operators like Square and Stripe try to make an end-run around banks, they remain inherently dependent on them. It’s a safe bet that Visa and Mastercard aren’t about to cede an inch of the incredibly lucrative trade in usurious rates on easy credit they’ve built up over the years.
In the case of the iPhone 5, since the NFC technology clearly exists, it might be that we’ll see it unfold in 2012 as an extension of Passbook. However, Passbook is not iWallet — the iWallet and NFC-related patents reveal a much different user interface, not to mention the fact that Passbook as it was first revealed will not be about making payments with your iPhone.
It very well may be that Apple will take baby steps into NFC payments, ensuring not to potentially gamble the long term success of the iPhone on the success or failure of an Apple-sponsored NFC initiative. But without something like NFC, it remains to be seen if iPhone 5 sales can live up to those lofty “35%” expectations.
By Michael Nace
Michael Nace is the Publisher of the iPhone 5 News Blog and iPhone 6 News Blog. He has published articles about the iPhone since 2010.
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July 24th, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Nokia had NFC in 2006 and some Android phones have had it since 2010 (Nexus, Samsung). Even if the iPhone 5 gets it its unlikely to be much more than something top stick in ad space. Don’t get me wrong, I never carry cash so for me it would be the end of my wallet. I am all for one less thing to grab on the way out the door, just don’t see it catching on any time soon.
So many people are clueless about what their phones do beyond facebook, twitter and angry birds (in both the Apple and Android worlds) that its hard to see any real game changers coming along. Us folk that hang out on phone and other tech forums often forget that most people are clueless about this stuff.
July 24th, 2012 at 12:59 pm
to true Frank…to true
July 24th, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Apple need to do something radical with this next phone and in my opinion this is to change the shape, bump the processor and RAM a little, enlarge the screen and try and rely on the updates coming in iOS6.
I am talking from a UK perspective. Imagine the scenario:
Customer: Hi, I want an new iphone tell me what it does?
Spotty Youth: Well, it has an NFC chip and 4G
Customer: What do they do?
Spotty Youth: Oh nothing, they’re not available systems in the UK yet and won’t be for at least two years.
Customer: How much is a Samsung?
What I am saying in essence is that not all countries have the infrastructure to support these new networks and interfaces so Apple will need to woo those customers with something entirely new.
As @Frank says, we are a VERY small community here but most people just use the phone for… well phoning, texting, Facebook Twitter etc and all they want is something they can swagger about with and show off how cool they are?
July 24th, 2012 at 2:25 pm
@ Frank… So very true most people get the lastest phone because it is the lastest and have no clue what the phone can do for them. All they know it is the lastest Phone.
July 24th, 2012 at 3:37 pm
There are so many rumours regarding new product releases, all scheduled between September and October that it is hard to see where Apple will fit them all in if true.
A new iPod Touch and iPod Nano, new iMacs (although the consensus is that there are manufacturing problems), 13 inch Macbooks with Retina, a new iPhone and a smaller iPad are all slated for a Q4 release in recent articles.
There is also the elusive Apple TV or iTV as some call it which most seem to think will be a whole television. My opinion on this touted new approach to ‘the way we all watch television’ is that it will not be a television but a device that connects to an existing screen. Think about it, will Apple release a television which is likely to cost a LOT more than the current batch out there and maybe corner a 5% of the market or release a device which uses ALL existing televisions to deliver its amazing secrets? I know there is already an Apple TV but if this gets ramped in some way or as I stated some time ago utilises an iPad or iPhone as a controller of some kind then wow we are in for something cool. This is still just a fairy tale at present and no details are out there for a release.
Another thing to wonder is if Apple release a mini iPad at roughly the same time as the new iPhone, how will sales of one affect the other? The iPhone gets bigger and the iPad gets smaller and apart from the obvious inability to make calls from the iPad (or not! we will just have to wait) what will people plump for?
So.. back on topic, yes the expectation for the new iPhone will likely be huge but will it be watered down with the release of so many other products and if there is to be a mini iPad what will that do to sales of it?
July 24th, 2012 at 5:11 pm
I’m 100% sure the iPhone 5 will dominate sales. It is way more known globally than any other phone, and the hype is way too high.
Apple hasn’t even announced it and the hype is through the roof.
Even if it’s nothing groundbreaking people will still buy it just because it’s the latest iPhone. But then again, I’m 100% sure it’ll be amazing. Especially iOS 6, I can’t wait for that!!!!
July 24th, 2012 at 5:27 pm
@Vernicularis
Just because a UK customer can’t utilize 4G doesn’t mean they won’t like the iPhone, I feel like you’re implying that the only good thing about an iPhone is its new features. Well it’s not all about the new features. It’s about the overall product. New features or not, the iPhone is still the most amazing phone to ever be released because of all the features that were introduced years ago. And the features Apple introduced years ago are STILL amazing features. If UK customers can’t use 4G that doesn’t mean they will choose a different phone. A different phone isn’t gonna allow them to use 4G so not picking an iPhone specifically because of a reason like that is rather dumb lol. In the example you provided it sounds like they can’t use 4G no matter what phone they choose.
I think using NFC and 4G as an argument of sales is an extremelly poor argument to make.
A strong argument would include the overall product, not just a few tiny features. What you’re arguing is the difference between a Ferrari colored red, when it’s illegal to drive a red car. Simple, just don’t use the color red and you still have an amazing car. Well not using 4G doesn’t change anything.
Don’t forget that Apple made 3G JUST as fast as Samaungs 4G phones. Apple put Samaung and others to shame when they proved that there was no speed difference. And on top of that I’m sure Apple will make their LTE phones download data much faster than other phones.
Anyway, if you argue about the product as a whole, iPhone wins –indefinitely
July 24th, 2012 at 5:37 pm
I know that the iPhone 5 will sell well, but I don’t know if I’d say the demand is higher than ever (a jump from last year, definitely) … let’s say I group together the statistics for “very likely” and somewhat likely” for 2011: you get 21.5% and just for the sake of things I throw in those who “don’t know”: add that together with 21.5% and we have 28.5% who are demanding it and 71.5% who aren’t. Now let’s look at the figures for 2012: 40% who are demanding it (very likely, somewhat likely, and those who don’t know grouped together) and 59% who aren’t (we’ll say 60%). I guess this article was written to show how much the demand has increased from last year, about 11.5% which is a pretty solid number. So forgive me if I’ve taken this article’s true intentions out of context, I’m just not going to agree if the demand is overwhelming, at least based on this survey because the demand is less than 50% which means majority of participants in this survey aren’t all that demanding. But it’s just one survey, a small group of people, it’s good to know what people are thinking, though. I’m sure thousands of people who haven’t partaken in market research surveys will say they are demanding and eager for the new iPhone (I’m one of them), and you should keep those people accountable for demand figures as well. Either way, Apple will see lots of profit with the new iPhone, in my opinion anyways.
July 24th, 2012 at 7:13 pm
I hope that the new iPhone has KFC because it’s finger lickin’ good.
(OK, it’s the end of the day… give me a break)
July 25th, 2012 at 12:24 am
Samsung*** I was typing on a mobile device lol
July 25th, 2012 at 2:56 am
@GetSwole – Comment #7
I feel your pain.
July 25th, 2012 at 5:18 am
There’s higher demand for the latest phone as the clever marketing people at Apple (and other manufacturers) have made phones not just smart, but a status symbol too. Hence the reason Apple’s prices have traditionally been high, something that Samsung have recently cottoned on to and are doing it well.
Every iteration comes with the associated advertising demonstrating how much you must have the latest version etc. and although most people will say they do not fall for the slick marketing, I still see people sniggering or outright laughing when someone pulls out an old Nokia when we’re at the pub etc. when the old Nokia had crystal clear calls and a week’s battery life etc. Something my iPhone cannot match.
My point is, that whether the new phone has new amazing features or not, whether it has great new software or just an incremental boost, it will STILL sell in the millions, more so than even the last iteration as the longer the advertisers have to get their ideas into our heads the more effective the “must have the latest” urge will become.
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July 25th, 2012 at 10:03 am
@GetSwole, I thought you were talking about the dragon in the upcoming Hobbit movies!
July 25th, 2012 at 2:06 pm
I went to the galaxy s3 because my iphone 4 died. It was a mistake went to iphone 4s and have to say that even with less impressive specs its a smoothe phone. I will be purchasing the 5 when it comes out as long as it has a 4″ plus screen otherwise im doing back to the samsung. After having that size of a screen I just don’t think the 3.5 will cut it anymore.
July 26th, 2012 at 4:32 am
I don’t think that everyone of us is waiting for iPhone 5 just to buy it. I believe that the competition has become very aggressive and people nowadays are very strict judges about the characteristics of a new phone. Personally I’m an Apple lover since 2008 and I’m stucked with my 3GS. Now I’m waiting to see what the new iPhone is going to be like. To tell the truth, I’m not impressed by the rumored display size of 4″. That’s too little difference from what I was expecting. A 4,5″ or even better a 5″ screen would make the difference for a new iPhone to me! Size matters!
July 26th, 2012 at 6:00 pm
@Akis, Im sorry, but the iPhone 5 will not be a 5″ screen phone.
Its sad to hear that the iPhone would be a disappointment for you. All of that money spent on iPhone apps etc. It’ll be all gone if you switch phones. Hopefully you’ll stick with Apple. The overall product is what matters, and especially the OS. The OS is the most important part of a phone. Your entire user experience with a phone revolves around the OS, and Android OS just doesnt flow as well as iOS…
But, good luck choosing. Lets just hope you make the right choice