Blogger danbo of the Japanese Apple-watcher site Macotakara reports that in a major Japanese business news program “World Business Satellite (WBS)” broadcast by TV-Tokyo of a program entitled “Launching the Rising-Sun Display company”, a Foxconn spokesman explained the reason for its recent recruitment of 18,000 more production personnel thus: “This (large hiring) is for iPhone 5 which will be sold in June”.
danbo says the interview can be found at the URL below, although since it’s in Japanese, it probably won’t be too much help to iPhone 5 News Blog readers.
http://www.tv-tokyo.co.jp/mv/wbs/newsl/post_18230nuu
Meanwhile Motley Fool’s Rick Aristotle Munarriz, that while Apple will never confirm or deny a loose-lipped leak like that, even if new iPhone 5 handsets begin rolling off FFoxconn’s assemblyline in June, it could still be weeks or months later before a retail release takes place, probably taking us into fall or close to it, which is the release time many of us (including me) have deduced as most likely for rthenext iPhone’s public release.
However, MMunarrizthinks there are also several reasons why a June iPhone 5 release would make sense. For one thing, he says, Apple has historically released iPhone revisions in June or July, and that dating back to the original iPhone release in June 2007, the company had typically stuck to that pattern until breaking precedent and going with an October release last year with the iPhone 4.
Reason number two would be that the 4G revolution is now well-enough established that Apple has seen fit to release the third-generation iPad with optional LTE support, and as Munarriz observes, if it can be done with the iPad, it should also be timely for a 4G iPhone to come on stage.
Then there’s the imminent April 8 debut of Nokia’s Lumia 900 phone with its Microsoft OS, which Munarriz predicts will be Microsoft’s boldest challenge to the iPhone and Android market dominance yet, the hardware being both cheap and feature-rich, and he thinks Apple will want to take the wind out of Microsoft’s and Nokia’s sails with an Phone 5 as soon as possible. Finally, he deduces that Apple CEO Tim Cook probably wants to get its annual iPhone refresh cycle back on historical track, and speculates that the iPhone 4S delay could have been largely attributable to concern over Steve Jobs’s health crisis last year.
That all sounds reasonably plausible, but I still don’t think MMunarriz’scase for a June release is ironclad, and as he noted, the Foxconn exec’s revelation on Japanese TV could be completely accurate and still consistent with a fall iPhone 5 rollout.
Something that might incline Apple to pull the trigger on a June iPhone 5 release (presuming that development is completed) is if there were a softening in iPhone 4S sales, but there’s little evidence of that so far. In Apple’s fiscal first quarter ending Dec. 31, 2011, the company reported iPhone sales of 37 million, an increase of 128% year-over-year, and the 4S was only released in some markets as recently as January.
Market research form Gartner Inc. reported in February that “Apple had an exceptional fourth quarter, selling 35.5 million smartphones to end users, a 121.4 percent increase year on year.” Gartner further predicted that Apple’s performance in the smartphone sector would continue through the first quarter of 2012 as availability of the iPhone 4S widened, although with residual pent-up demand pretty much fulfilled, iPhone 4S sales would no longer benefit from that factor as they had in Q4 2011, and its analysts projected sales declining somewhat quarter-on-quarter.”
Taking a contrarian view to Rick Aristotle MMunarriz’s iMore’s editor-in-chief Rene Ritchie, who reportedly has Ritchie has “valuable sources from within Apple.” a couple of weeks back predicted an October 2012 release for the iPhone 5. Ritchie has a solid track record with Apple news. Ritchie has considerable cred as a commentator on this matter, having correctly forecast back in August, 2011 that Apple’s then forthcoming iPhone revision would be released in the first week of October and called “iPhone 4S,” while most pundits continued to blabber about an “iPhone 5.” Ritchie also correctly forecast the new iPad’s March 7 unveiling.
Rene Ritchie is now saying that new iPhone will indeed be 4G LTE compatible, reasoning that it’s hard to imagine Apple equipping the iPad a feature like that and not adding it to the iPhone as well, and referring to the “iPhone 5.1″ being on track for a similar if not same sized screen, although pperhapsslightly larger than the current 3.5-inch unit and a new micro dock connector. Nothing said about processor or graphics engine power, but I remain skeptical that Apple would introduce its rumored quad-core A6 silicon in the iPhone rather than the next iPad.
Ritchie also notes that up to now, every new iPhone release has been accompanied by a new OS version, and while no specific information on how large an update Apple is planning for iOS 6 has emerged, nine months doesn’t seem like adequate development time for even a modest OS upgrade, deducing that if iOS 6 is not introduced to developers until the World Wide Developers Conference in June, another fall iPhone release would seem “a certainty.”
The roadmap may become a bit more certain after Apple reports its revenue and earnings statement for its second fiscal quarter on April 24. The International Business Times’ Carlo Alejandro Fernandez says that while Apple likely won’t talk specifically about a sixth generation iPhone during its April 24 conference call, the Q2 results should provide a better clue as to whether the iPhone 5 will be released October or in June.
And April 24 is not that far off.
By Charles Moore