The iPhone 5 News Blog

DigiTimes is floating a new rumor claiming that we’ll see a Mini iPad release in August and the much-anticipated iPhone 5 in September.

Citing an unnamed source in Asia, DigiTimes is claiming to have the inside track on the release dates for both the Mini iPad and the iPhone 5, as well as a 10-inch iPad — all of which are said to becoming before the year’s end. The new article states that “Pegatron Technology reportedly has landed orders for a new-generation iPhone to be launched in September and a 10-inch iPad to be launched in the fourth quarter, according to Taiwan-based supply chain makers,” but that also “a 7-inch iPad, which reportedly will be released in August, will be manufactured by Foxconn Electronics (Hon Hai Precision Industry).”

If DigiTimes‘ sources are to be believed, there could very well be an Apple product launch in August, September, and October — and perhaps even November, if the iTV doesn’t make an appearance at the WWDC in June.  But Jonny Evans at Computerworld reminds us that: “These claims don’t come from Pegatron, but from Digitimes’ shadowy world of ‘Taiwan-based supply chain makers’ — in itself a demographic to conjure with, do people make supply chains?”

Is there any reason to believe that DigiTimes has any part of this rumor correct? Read More

Production rumors out of Asia indicate that suppliers have received orders to produce components for 6 million Mini iPad units, to be released in the third quarter of 2012. But will a 7-inch Mini iPad’s top competitors in the marketplace be the New iPad and iPhone 5?  

Mini iPad rumors persist, with more whispering coming out of Asia that the tech manufacturing sector is receiving component orders for 6 million units, with a release window sometime in the third quarter. The Chinese-language tech blog Netease, which covers production-related news and rumors for consumer tech, had this to say (via Google Translate): “the appearance of the chassis are arranged by the Hon Hai Group, the new co-operation in some parts partners. In addition to the previous markets confirmed AUO and Shuo Following the New iPad this year, has re-received the iPad Mini Order,” going on to say that, “according to Taiwan media reports, the recent market came iPad Mini supply chain has been finalized, with the exception of David overseas, and the master also won the assembly order.”

Netease appears to be drawing from sources from within the tech manufacturing sector. But for as much as the article points out specific component suppliers purported to have received orders for Mini iPad parts, the sources remain unfounded.

But I found another quote from the Netease article that is worth thinking about:

They also had this to say about the viability of a 7-inch Mini iPad in the consumer tech marketplace: “However, foreign analysts pointed out that if Apple launched a low price the iPad Mini, most affected is probably the market share of more than 60 percent of the iPad, and may generate crowding out effect size similar to the iPhone.” Broken English and yet another unfounded source aside, this is an important consideration: what could the unintended consquences be of releasing the Mini iPad, and could it lead to reduced sales of this year’s New iPad and eventual iPhone 5?

Joanna Stern at ABC News is quick to point out that Steve Jobs was never a fan of the smaller iPad. she had this to say in a recent article:

Steve Jobs had been quite outspoken about smaller tablets; during one earnings call he even said that a 7-inch tablet would be “dead on arrival.” On that same call he said, “While one could increase the resolution of the display to make up for some of the difference, it is meaningless unless your tablet also includes sandpaper so that the user can sand down their fingers to around one quarter of their present size.”

Jobs’ explanation for why the smaller iPad would be a problem doesn’t include any discussion of how it could affect sales of other Apple devices, or if it could be profitable in an of itself. Though Jobs was also known to have said more than once that the smaller tablet (or large-screened smartphone) can be confounding to consumers, since it strattles both the smartphone and tablet design. As a result, Jobs seemed to be implicitly suggesting that a device like this could in fact hurt the iPhone and full-sized iPad.

In addition, there is even question as to whether or not a Mini iPad can in fact be a profitable product for Apple, based on what we know about the cost of components that go into the current iPads. Adrian Kingsley-Hughes at ZDNET has an interesting cost breakdown estimate of the Mini iPad, which bears out questions as to how Apple would ever make any money selling it:

“[T]ake a look at the cost of a 16GB Wi-Fi iPad 2 [graphic above]. It’s down as a shade over $245. We can take this as a starting price for the mini iPad. A smaller iPad would have a smaller screen, smaller touch screen and, one would assume, a smaller battery. But how much realistically can these smaller items shave off the price? Even shaving $40 off the overall bill of materials (BOM) and manufacturing costs would mean that even at $299 the mini iPad would have the smallest gap between BOM plus manufacturing costs of any iPad. It just doesn’t make sense that Apple would release a mini iPad, a device that could potentially cannibalize sales of the more expensive models, at such a poor margins. A mini iPad might make sense if iPad sales were flagging, but there’s nothing to suggest that Apple is having a problem selling full-sized (and high-margin) iPads.

We already know that, thanks to Apple keeping the new iPad prices steady, it isn’t particularly profitable on its own — Apple’s profits from the iPad come mostly from brute sales numbers. Now, the Mini iPad appears to be even less profitable at the unit level. But as Kingsley-Hughes points out, it could end up cannibalizing sales of the iPhone 5 and New iPad. Of course, Kingsley-Hughes’ computations are based on the rumor that the Mini iPad would essentially be exactly like the iPad 3, only smaller. It remains to be seen if Apple would be willing to make the Mini iPad an el cheap-o model in order to make it more profitable. It is, after all, possible to make much lower-performance tablets than what Apple produces. But what would possibly come with it is a drop in quality and performance that Apple customers may not be comfortable with. As Apple enthusiasts, its much easier to imagine the viability of new products like the Mini iPad based on our own wants and wishes than to be sober enough to ask, “will it make Apple money?” If the answer to this question is “no,” then there is no way that we’ll ever see a Mini iPad. They might have a couple promotypes sitting around in the Cupertino labs, but that’s where they’ll be destined to stay.

By Michael Nace

A fresh rumor out of Asia outlining a lower price point and third quarter release for the fabled Mini iPad may further point to an iPhone 5 release sooner rather than later.

It’s always exciting to be able to present two exciting Apple rumors in one article here on the iPhone 5 News Blog. We begin with a new Mini iPad rumor out of Asia, which touches on the possible price point and release date window for the long-rumored little sibling to the industry-leading 9.7-inch iPad proper. Kotaku translates the Chinese report as such:

“Chinese net portal, NetEase, has a story on a rumored new mini Apple tablet. NetEase claimed that the device will be released around the third quarter of this year to “counter attack” the upcoming Windows tablets. The report further claims that the devices will cost anywhere from US$249 to $299 and that there will be an initial 6 million units ready for launch.”

9to5Mac, who has popularized the report here in the west, didn’t speak to the veracity of any rumor coming from NetEase, but they do imply a certain inevitability to the eventual appearance of the Mini iPad, stating, “The consensus is that Apple will use these to counter the mid-range tablet market that Amazon and others are now having some success in. The screen at 7.85 inches could hold the original iPad pixel dimensions and allow Apple to cut costs considerably.”

We’ve reported recently that a prototype of the Mini iPad does indeed exist, having been spotted in Cupertino’s labs, and that the design is essentially just a smaller version of the current iPad. It would stand to reason that Apple will reuse as many of the internal components as possible in order to streamline Mini iPad production to coincide with regular iPad production as well, though Cupertino will obviously have to devise a smaller chassis and display.

This is not the first time that we have heard the rumor that the Mini iPad will debut in the latter half of 2012. However, let’s segway into what this may mean for the iPhone 5 release.

It stands to reason that, should the Mini iPad debut in the third quarter of 2012, there is more chance of Apple looking to release the iPhone 5 several months before it, in order to keep their high-profile mobile products well-spaced from one another. If the iPhone 5 were to be announced in June, it will have been launched more than three months after the iPad 3. Similarly, if the Mini iPad is announced in October, it would enjoy a similarly spaced buffer. It’s just my opinion, but this release schedule theory seems more in keeping with what we’ve seen from Apple, rather than releasing two high-profile products close to one another.

And let’s not forget that they may also be looking to fit iTV into the 2012 release schedule as well.

Another thing to consider with the Mini iPad’s release is how it could affect the iPhone 5′s screen size. Steve Jobs is famously known for being skeptical of small-screened tablet computers, for fear that they encroach into an ambiguous no man’s land, somewhere between smartphone and tablet. Samsung has happily ventured into this no man’s land with the Galaxy Note, but Apple may be less apt to offer a big-screened iPhone 5. It will be interesting to see if Apple offers only a modest screen increase for the iPhone 5 in order to keep it dimensionally distant from the Mini iPad.

Regardless, if you’re an optimist, then you have to love the prospect of these rumors about the Mini iPad coming true, since, in my opinion, they most definitely have positive implications for an iPhone 5 release date coming sooner rather later.

By Michael Nace

The Galaxy Note has become a relative success for Samsung in 2012. Is Apple looking to take on this smartphone/tablet crossover with a large-screened iPhone 5 or Mini iPad?

The Samsung Galaxy Note has been laughed off by Appledom for its built-in stylus pen and big, bulky screen — a device that doesn’t know if it is a smartphone or tablet. And yet, in spite of the widespread ambivalence of the Samsung Galaxy Note’s design and place in the mobile computing sphere, it has managed to lead Samsung’s recent sales successes. According to CNBC, Samsung “will report strong first-quarter profit of around USD 4.5 billion on Friday on soaring sales of its flagship Galaxy smartphones and the new Note, a mini-tablet and phone,” adding that “Sales of the Note, which has revived the throwback stylus function, have topped 5 million, increasing the competition against Apple Inc.”

Compared to the fact that the iPhone 4S sold 4 million units in its first weekend alone, 5 million Samsung Galaxy Note sales may not seems all too impressive when comparing it against Apple’s iPhone sales. But pound for pound, it cannot be denied that the Galaxy Note has turned out to be a design success; people are buying it, people are liking it, and — most importantly in Apple’s eyes — it’s making Samsung money.

Will Apple answer the Galaxy Note’s design in 2012?

Coincidentally, there are two recent stories churning in the Apple rumor mill that could potentially answer this question. The first story, posted on March 29th, reported that Apple is producing 5-inch displays, either for a Mini iPad or iPhone 5. The second story came just yesterday, with news that Apple has a 7.85-inch Mini iPad prototype in its lab. Both of these rumors could turn out to be non-starters, but what’s interesting is that they point to Apple producing a radically new mobile device that would directly take on the Galaxy Note. A 5-inch iPhone 5, while highly improbable, would be a clear Galaxy Note competitor.

An article published today on MotoringCrunch also makes the case that the 7.85-inch Mini iPad could take on the Galaxy Note as well: “If these rumors do come true, then we may see another intermediate device between the iPhone 5 and New iPad ’3′. Given that the iPad was originally criticized for just being a giant iPhone sans calling capabilities, if the iPad mini does end up being allowed to make phone calls just like the original Samsung Galaxy Tab 7 could, we could see a tablet/phone hybrid option for Apple fans.”

It’s a big jump to imagine that the Mini iPad would be able to make calls — the rumor from yesterday is that Apple’s Mini iPad prototype is nothing more than a scaled-down version of the original — but it is true that, as far as screen size goes, the Mini iPad would manage to compete against both the Kindle-esque tablets as well as the Galaxy Note to some extent.

The common perception that Apple has managed to craft about itself is that it doesn’t react to its competitors products; it leads, and they follow. But if we’re honest, we can agree that this isn’t necessarily true. Apple — just like virtually every other leading technology corporation — have taken germinal ideas and improved upon them. It very well may be that Cupertino sees the viability of a Galaxy Note-style iPhone 5, and will seek to improve upon it with their own innovation. It may not end up having a 5-inch screen and stylus, but it could turn out to be something more tablet-like than what we have imagined thus far.

The poet T.S. Eliot once said, “Good poets borrow, great poets steal.” Even if Apple manages to “steal” the concept of the smartphone/tablet crossover and interpose it into the iPhone 5′s design, I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns out to be a rousing success that will dwarf Samsung’s Galaxy Note.

By Michael Nace

An insider claims that the fabled 7.85-inch “Mini” iPad does indeed exist, and that Cupertino developers have been “noodling around” with it for some time now. But is the Mini iPad something we can expect this year, or is it still just a concept device?

Almost since the launch of the original iPad, users have anticipated that Apple would someday release a “Mini iPad” version as well. rumor and speculation for the fabled “Mini iPad” has only increased over the years, as new competitors in the marketplace, such as the Kindle Fire and Nook, have sought to undercut Apple’s bigger-screened, bigger-priced iPad with smaller, cheaper devices, in hopes of attracting newcomers to the tablet experience. The assumption has been that Apple will eventually have to take on  the sub-9.7-inch tablet market with a smaller, cheaper tablet of their own. but all of this has been pure conjecture until now.

Today, a new report has surfaced suggesting that the rumored 7.85-inch Mini iPad prototype does indeed exist. Mac Rumors reports: “DaringFireball‘s John Gruber offered up some additional confirmation of the existence of a 7.85″ iPad. Gruber reports that he has been told by ‘numerous’ people that this size iPad is something Apple has been ‘noodling with.’” In responding to a question as to whether or not this Mini is slated for release this year — or at any foreseeable point in the future — Gruber goes on to say:

“Well, I don’t know. What I do know is that they have one in the lab…a 7.85 inch iPad that runs at 1024×768… it’s just like the 9.7″ iPad shrunk down a little bit. Apps wouldn’t need to be recompiled or redesigned to work optimally on it. It’s just the iPad smaller.”

Gruber’s claim coincides with a smattering of Mini iPad production rumors that have persisted over the past few months. Mac Rumors points out that “It has been clear to us that a 7.85″ iPad has been in late prototyping stages. Reports have been coming from the Chinese supply chain about such a device for months,” while Apple Insider notes “Speculation on a smaller form factor iPad gained legitimacy in February when The Wall Street Journal reported that Apple officials have been showing off designs for a smaller iPad that has a similar screen resolution as the iPad 2.”

The iPhone 5 News Blog has covered the Mini iPad rumors consistently, though the reports over the course of the past year are inconclusive and do little to shed any light on what — or if — we may expect in a production model Mini iPad. you’ll recall that the most recent rumor has suggested that 5-inch displays are currently in production for either a larger-screened iPhone 5 or even “minnier” Mini iPad. That rumor seems unlikely.

However, perhaps a more reasonable rumor is that the Mini iPad could see a release date in the fall or winter, with the iPhone 5 being released in June. This release date schedule would give both the iPhone 5 and the rumored Mini iPad an ample buffer between releases. In addition, a smaller, cheaper Mini iPad released in the fall could end up become a hit-selling Christmas present.

What remains to be seen is the viability of a Mini iPad that is essentially the same as the iPad 3, but with a smaller screen. Given the New iPad’s astounding popularity — even among Kindle and Nook users who has upgraded to the iPad this year — the case has not been made that a 7.85-inch Mini iPad would fulfill a need in the tablet marketplace. But if Apple can manage to make the Mini iPad considerably cheaper than its larger-screened cousin, the Mini iPad’s most attractive selling feature could be not its small screen, but rather its small price tag.

By Michael Nace

Rumors that Apple is manufacturing 5-inch retina displays for the iPhone 5 would seem far fetched. But it could be that these displays are slated for the fabled “Mini iPad.”

Imagine for a moment that Tim Cook unveils the iPhone this year and it doesn’t have a 3.7-, 4.0-, 4.3-, or even 4.6-inch display — numbers that we’ve all heard rumored for the iPhone 5. Instead, the iPhone 5 turns out to a tablet-smartphone line-blurrer (is that a word?) with a 5-inch screen.

That’s what Stuff’s hook-laden headline would like you to believe. According to their report: “Apple is building a 5in Retina Display – which could be used for the iPhone 5 or a rumoured iPad Mini. Reports from a Japanese manufacturer suggest that the 5in Retina Displays are going into production ready for a 2013 device release.”

It’s strange to imaging where a 5-inch Retina display fits into the possible 2012 Apple product ecosphere, isn’t it? Just about the only half-reasonable argument for a 5-inch iPhone 5 is that the Samsung Galaxy Note is already out there, and Apple thinks that it’s big screen and hidden stylus pen is a bold idea that they can do much, much better. But I find that doubtful: Steve Jobs was pretty skeptical of small-screen tablets and stylii. It’s hard to imagine that Cupertino would break from his ideologies so radically. Besides, the tech community is far from having embraced the notion of a smartphone with a 5-inch screen. Heck, the debate rages on if even a 4.6-inch screen is too big.

But the 5-inch Retina display rumor is even problematic for the never-ending “Mini iPad” rumor as well.

We’ve been hearing about the Mini iPad for quite a long time now — well over a year — and no one has ever talked about it having a tiny 5-inch screen; the estimates have always been in the 7-inch range. Just as the 5-inch iPhone 5 would be massive, conversely, a 5-inch iPad would a bit too diminutive. In this way, the rumor seems too outlandish to be true. And because the original source is from a Japanese-language website, it’s hard to parse out its veracity.

I think it’s always worth chronicling the iPhone 5 and iPad rumors, even if they seem too good (or bad) to be true. Most who follow iPhone and Mini iPad rumors will agree that a 5-inch display on either of these two devices would be a strange move that would completely turn the tech community on its head. But perhaps that’s exactly what Tim Cook is looking to do this year?

By Michael Nace

The rumor mills have recently settled on fall of 2012 for the iPhone 5 release. But if the recent rumor from a Samsung executive is true and that a Mini iPad will debut later in the year, a June iPhone 5 release date is once again viable.

Yesterday we posted about a report from BGR that Samsung is purportedly building display components for a Mini iPad, which is rumored to be scheduled for release in the latter part of 2012. While this story is made up entirely of rumor and BGR‘s “unnamed source,” should the details prove to come true — that Apple will finally release the mythic “Mini iPad,” and that it will come later in the year — it would most definitely have an impact on how we prognosticate the iPhone 5 release date.

Theories on when the iPhone 5 would be released have cavitated back and forth between a June 2012 release at the WWDC — once the iPhone’s usual launch date and site — and a reprise of the fall launch of the late-arriving iPhone 4S. While early opinion considered June as a possibility, more recent speculation has settled on the fall — October or November.

But if the new Mini iPad is to be released sometime in the fall, what are the possibilities that Apple will compromise such a significant release with that of the iPhone 5?

It has become apparent through past Apple release schedules that Cupertino typically does not like to split their release events with too many new products. For the iPad 3 launch, Apple CEO Tim Cook had a lot to unveil, including an Apple TV upgrade, iOS 5.1, and a wealth of new features — software and hardware alike — for the iPad 3. But for as much as Apple TV is a device, it was only being upgraded; Apple did not reveal iTV, as some had speculated.

The same was true last year, when the iPhone 4S was released. A prevailing rumor was that Apple would be releasing both an iPhone 5 and 4S — or even an iPhone 5 and iPad 2, neither of which happened, of course.

Assuming that Apple will stick to releasing one big, new product at a time, seeking to give their new products some breathing room in the marketplace, it is now much more likely that the iPhone 5 release date will happen sometime in June, as once considered. With the iPad 3 being release in early March, a June-released iPhone 5 would give it 3+ solid buffer months to let the New iPad soak up big sales and media attention. After the iPhone 5 is released in June, Apple would have 3+ additional months in the summer for iPhone 5 sales to soar, before announcing the Mini iPad sometime in October — just in time for those getting ready to shop for Christmas.

And let’s not forget iTV. Where would its release fit in? Just before Christmas, perhaps?

Of course, there are plenty of x-factors along the way that could skew this schema. But it isn’t hard to imagine how the appearance of a Mini iPad could allow the iPhone 5 to get released sooner rather than later.

By Michael Nace

Breaking news today regarding the rumored “Mini iPad.” According to BGR, an unnamed source from Samsung indicates that the smaller iPad will be released later in the year, based on Apple’s recent ordering of parts from the components manufacturer. Zach Epstein reports: “While speaking with The Korea Times, the anonymous Samsung official said that Apple will likely spend a record $11 billion on Samsung-sourced parts for its various devices in 2012. ‘The amount of the current contract is around $9.7 billion,’ The Korea Times was told.”

Samsung is the current supplier of the new Retina displays for the iPad 3, and is rumored to be producing the display for the sub-9.7 inch Mini iPad, which will most likely feature a 7.85-inch screen. These screen dimensions would put the Mini iPad in the midst of lower-priced tablets, such as the Kindle and Nook, though the Samsung source gave no indication as to a comparative price point for the new Mini iPad.

It is well-known that Steve Jobs was on record as panning the notion of small-screened tablets, arguing that the smaller screen would blur the lines between tablet and smartphone so as to make it difficult to sell both to prospective users. Thus, a 7.85 inch Mini iPad would be a dramatic reversal for Cupertino’s design team in the wake of Jobs’ death.

By Michael Nace

Rumors and speculation about a mini iPad 3 have died hard. Now, a top tech analyst predicts a mini iPad 3 released later in 2012, plus Siri for the iPad 3 and more.

How do you feel about the prospect of a mini iPad 3? We know that Steve Jobs wasn’t very fond of the notion of shrinking the iPad down to possibly rival the iPhone, and as a result, the iPad and iPad 2 remained markedly bigger than the iPhone’s 3.5-inch screen. But a new tech analyst is claiming that can indeed expect a sub 9.7-inch “mini” iPad 3 in 2012 — just not released on the same day as the regular iPad 3.

Citing the rise in popularity of other lesser-priced tablets like the Kindle Fire, Ezra Gottheil, an analyst with Technology Business Research, had this to say, via a Computerworld article: “‘I believe that’s always been in the plan” said Gottheil of a small iPad, contradicting past comments by Jobs, who had rejected seven inches as too small for a tablet. ‘Actually that’s a good form factor for some users, and although they will also charge a premium above other similar-sized tablets, they want to protect that price flank.’”

Gottheil clearly believes that market dominance will overshadow ideology here, and that Tim Cook and company will leave Steve Jobs’ design ethics behind this year in order to match its competitors. Implicitly, one has to think about the iPhone 5′s screen as well; while Steve Jobs never explicitly said that he was against increasing the iPhone’s screen size, it never increased while he was alive, even after Android smartphones began breaking the 4-inch mark.

In this way, we should all watch with great interest this year to see if this prediction comes true, and Apple releases a mini iPad later in 2012. If so, I think it’s fair to say that we can expect a very different Apple, Inc. in the decade ahead.

Gottheil really went off the reservation at the end of the Computerworld piece when he suggested an albeit long-shot possibility that a matched keyboard could accompany the smaller mini iPad: “A matched Bluetooth keyboard, perhaps integrated with a case to enclose the iPad, is also a long shot, but something that could attract customers. ‘I think something like that would be an important peripheral for students,’ Gottheil said.”

Huh?

Other iPad 3 Predictions

Gottheil regurgitated many other predictions for the iPad 3 that we’ve already heard, such as the retina display: “That’s important to them because it means the iPad will work well in their home theater play, since it will display full HD. And it’s an important differentiator [between the iPad and rival tablets] going forward.” He also predicts that the quad core A6 chip will be a long shot, mainly due to the fact that it will put heavy power constraints on the battery. But considering that one of the most recent rumors is that the iPad 3 will sport a newfangled battery pack, it’s hard to imagine that it could not handle quad core.

On Siri, Gottheil seems to think that it is a no-brainer.

By Michael Nace

Steve Jobs was very clear that a 7-inch iPad made little sense to him, since it would suffer from an identity crisis. But new rumors suggest a “mini” iPad for early 2012 to compete against the Kindle Fire. How would this affect the prospect of a larger-screen iPhone 5?

Since the death of Steve Jobs, one of the hottest segment of web searches have been for “famous Steve Jobs quotes.” Steve had a lot to say about a wide ranger of topics — so much so that you can find a quote to match virtually anything you want to discuss in tech. He’s like the tech version of Oscar Wilde.

On 7-inch iPads, Mr. Jobs had this to say: “The seven-inch tablets are tweeners: too big to compete with a smartphone, and too small to compete with an iPad.” In spite of this definitive statement, the old 7-inch “mini” iPad rumors have resurfaced (after being completely forgotten from as far back as the Spring of 2011), with several tech websites prognosticating that a smaller, cheap iPad is due out in early 2012 to take on the Kindle’s new Fire tablet.

GNT has this to say: “The Asian CNet reports that its possible an iPad Mini exists. Such a device has been compared to the Kindle Fire, tablet/reader which was launched in the United States for $199 dollars. An eventual iPad Mini would compete with this device, with a 7″ display, while an additional offering from Apple would increase the number of tactile tablets available in their range.”

Would Tim Cook be bold enough to defy the will of Steve Jobs’ ideology so soon in his tenure as Apple CEO? I think it’s doubtful: Jobs most likely hand-picked Cook based on the fact that they shared very similar opinions about the future of the technologies that Apple develops. Also, there is still no reason for Apple to be reactive to any other tablet on the market — including the Kindle Fire. CNET is reporting that 5 million Kindle Fire units are expected to sell in Q4 of 2011: “Checks indicate that they could ship upwards of 5 million units in the December quarter [fourth quarter], which is just shy of half of Apple’s volume.”

But the longevity of the Fire’s sales still remains to be seen, considering that Amazon will benefit greatly from the lower $199 price tag (very attractive considering the sagging world economy) and near-Christmastime launch.

What seems clear from the opinions of the tech media is that, whatever success the Fire may enjoy over the next few months has little to do with its smaller, 7-inch screen. Seeking Alpha says: “A 7″ tablet is a device that’s stuck halfway between the iPad and a smart phone, without the advantages of either. Apple conducted extensive market research to figure out the ideal size for a tablet before unleashing the iPad, and Steve Jobs famously declared that all 7″ tablets would be dead on arrival.” Add to this the fact that the Fire doesn’t have a camera, mic, a big app selection and little memory, and you start to realize that even the $199 price tag might come to seem steep, considering how little you get with the Fire.

But the other end of this discussion about why the iPad won’t go “mini” has also to do with the prospect of a beefier iPhone 5.

It seems inevitable that the iPhone 5 (or iPhone 6 should apple skip the “5″) is eventually going to get a screen size upgrade. It would be hard to imagine that, once apple adopts a new form factor, that they won’t use it as an opportunity to grow the screen to some extent. Given the Steve Jobs position on 7-inch iPads, why would Apple offer a small-screened  tablet and large screen iPhone? Why would they move the screen sizes of their successful smartphone and tablet closer together? After all, it seems that what Jobs was trying to do is keep a healthy distance between the screen sizes of his mobile devices: smartphones are under 4 inches, tablets in the 9.7-inch range, and notebooks are between 11 and 17 inches.

Dell famously experimented with the tablet/smartphone with the Dell Streak 5. But it turned out to be a largely abortive attempt. Even now, the Dell Streak 7 is making little waves in the tablet sphere.

Not only do I believe that Apple will not release iPads smaller than 9.7 inches anytime soon, I am also skeptical of whether we’ll ever see an ultra large-screened iPhone. The iPhone 5 may very well have a larger, edge-to-edge screen that approaches 4 inches, but I would not expect a 4.1 or 4.3″ screen, even on an overhauled iPhone 5. I like the rumors of the curved glass display (Apple’s going to have to use those glass cutting machines eventually, right?) and some really exquisite, new form factor, like being cut from a single piece of metal.

But something tells me that Apple likes the overall size of the iPhone. They bucked a serious trend by not lengthening the screen on the iPhone 4S. Maybe they see the big smartphone screen as a fad, and that consumers will tire of the bulkiness? You may think that’s impossible, but consumers famously got bored of the ever-shrinking mobile phone in the late 90s. Apple may simply be ahead of the curve on this trend, and by staying pat on their screen size, they’ll remain in the driver’s seat over the next few years.

By Michael Nace